Teton County’s tension is a $873,992 Zillow 2026-06 median home value versus $2,878 monthly median asking rent and a published 3.95% gross yield before costs. Buyers dependent on financing or low operating costs should investigate rent coverage rather than read this as a simple appreciation case. HUD’s $1,323 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for market rent or yield.
At 0.31%, reported median annual tax is $2,143, a carrying cost outside gross yield. Zillow’s 2026-06 value measure rose year over year, while FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI fell 8.94%; its longer cumulative HPI rise of 77.32% does not resolve the mismatch. Different methods and vintages cannot be averaged, and HPI is not a dollar home value. Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS data show higher listing prices and more active listings, shorter marketing time, and price reductions: asking-price, visible-supply and seller-concession evidence, not closed sales or proof of buyer demand.
Demand and competition have support but concentration limits. QCEW’s 2025 annual county series shows workplace covered employment grew 3.02%; it is neither resident employment nor unemployment, and Leisure and hospitality is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net migration was 63 tax-return households, whose entrants had higher average income than leavers; that is county-level evidence, not proof of tenant demand. Non-occupant purchase mortgages were 13.33% of 210 observed purchases, showing investor participation but not who won listings or paid cash.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard; modeled annual loss is 0.17% of building value. It is not property-specific insurance or realized damage. Flood-zone, elevation, condition and insurance-premium data are not published, preventing net-yield and resilience underwriting. Closed-sale comps, lease terms, vacancy, financing and operating expenses are also not published; without them, exit value, debt coverage and after-cost return cannot be determined.