Tooele County presents a mixed entry case: measured asking rent is rising while Zillow’s home-value measure is slightly lower. It merits investigation by purchasers able to verify rents and wildfire carrying costs, and caution where thin income must absorb expenses. Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation reports a $481,741 median home value, slightly lower year over year, and $1,735 monthly median asking rent, up 3.2%; the supplied gross yield is 4.32% before costs. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 0.98%. That index is not a home value and, with a different method and vintage from Zillow, cannot be combined into one appreciation rate.
Measured rent is market asking rent. HUD FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot replace market rent in yield calculations. Published yield is a pre-cost screen. The 0.57% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input beside insurance, repairs, vacancy and financing. Those costs are not published, preventing net-yield, cash-flow and debt-service coverage underwriting from this record.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing record shows 340 active listings, with 22.44% price reduced. These are visible asking supply and seller concessions, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Net migration was 530 tax-return households, and inbound movers’ average income exceeded outbound movers’ by $5,392; this supports a relocation question, not a tenant-demand conclusion. Only 22 of 1,743 purchases were investor purchases, limiting the supplied evidence of non-occupant competition. QCEW is annual covered employment at county workplaces, not resident employment, unemployment or a forecast.
Wildfire is the dominant hazard, consistent with modeled climate loss of 0.19% of building value per year. This county-level model is not a parcel insurance quote or expected loss. The thesis could fail if property insurance or mitigation costs overwhelm pre-cost yield, county medians mask weak submarket rents or vacancy, or differing price measures leave direction unresolved. Obtain parcel hazard and insurance evidence, lease comparables, operating statements, financing terms and closed-sale comparables; without them, net income, resale support and parcel risk are untested.