Union County’s tension is a reported rent-supported yield against softer MLS listings, slight net out-migration and inland-flood exposure. It merits investigation by buyers able to verify property costs and flood protection, but caution for cases dependent on quick resale or county averages. This county record screens a market; it does not establish performance for a neighborhood or asset.
Zillow’s county measure reports a $339,511 median home value, up 5.71%, and $1,341 monthly median asking rent, supporting the stated 4.74% gross yield before vacancy, management, insurance, repairs, financing and property tax. The published effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost screen, not a bill for a target parcel. HUD’s $1,222 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate; it cannot replace market rent in yield work. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 4.63% annually. It supports Zillow’s positive price direction but is neither a home value nor a growth rate to average with Zillow.
Realtor.com MLS evidence shows more active listings and 24.83% of listings with price reductions, indicating visible supply and seller concessions, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was net -24, although inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $1,235. Investors accounted for 13 of 187 purchases, or 6.95%, a measurable but limited slice of recorded purchases. Annual QCEW covered employment at county workplaces declined 0.41%; Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector. This is not resident employment, unemployment, or a forecast.
The dominant hazard is inland flood, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.13%; this warrants parcel-level flood-zone, elevation, insurance, deductible and prior-loss checks rather than a dollar-loss estimate. Zillow and Realtor observations are labeled 2026-06, whereas FHFA and QCEW annual observations are labeled 2025, so they are not one common time frame. Missing vacancy, operating-expense, insurance-quote, financing, property-condition, closed-sale and neighborhood-rent evidence prevents net-yield, debt-service, resale-liquidity and property-specific flood-cost conclusions.