Union Parish presents a price-momentum versus income-and-carrying-cost tension. Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $165,091, up 4.96% year over year; FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 14.01%. These separate methods and vintages both show upward movement, but FHFA is an index rather than a home value and the rates cannot be averaged. Buyers seeking appreciation evidence should investigate local closed-sale comps; cash-flow underwriters should be cautious.
Measured market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The supplied HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot be substituted for rent or yield. A 0.46% effective property-tax rate and $518 median annual tax provide only a partial carrying-cost reference alongside the price level. Insurance, maintenance, financing costs, and property-level assessments are not published, preventing a full expense and cash-flow screen.
Separate Realtor.com MLS listing-market evidence points to softer seller positioning: active listings rose 17.07% while median listing price fell 1.35%; asking prices and visible supply are not closed sales or standalone proof of buyer demand. The 38.54% pending-to-active ratio is a listing-flow measure, not a sales conversion rate. Annual QCEW evidence concerns covered jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment or unemployment; education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net migration was negative 4 tax-return households, and incoming movers’ average AGI was $556 below outgoing movers’. Investor purchases were 22 of 185 total purchases, a supplied 11.89% share, indicating participation that must be checked against deal-level buyer records.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss equals 0.16%; this county-level ratio does not identify parcel exposure, premiums, deductibles, or mitigation. The combination of absent market rent, MLS rather than closed-sale evidence, and limited hazard detail prevents a property-level return conclusion. Next checks are lease comps, insurance and flood-zone quotes, tax bills, inspection scope, and closed-sale/pending transaction records.