Wayne County’s underwriting tension is positive price movement against thinner demand and hazard evidence. Buyers who can verify property-level rents and flood costs should investigate; those needing demonstrated income coverage or broad tenant depth should be cautious. Zillow’s county observation for 2026-06 puts median home value at $148,437 and reports year-over-year growth. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 7.73%; it corroborates direction, but is an index rather than a home value and must not be merged with Zillow’s differently dated measure.
Measured market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be calculated. HUD’s $973 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for it. The effective property-tax rate is 0.47%, providing a stated carrying-cost input but not total escrow. Inland flood is dominant; modeled annual climate loss equals 0.41% of building value. Insurance premium, deductible, flood-zone and building-condition data are absent, leaving net operating cost and resilience untested.
Demand evidence is mixed. The 2025 QCEW record reports 8,404 annual average covered jobs located at county workplaces, down 1.06%; it is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Net tax-return migration was -42, and moving-in households’ average AGI was $3,817 below moving-out households’, which weakens the available household-income signal without explaining household composition. Investors accounted for 17 of 260 purchases, or 6.54%, indicating a present but limited non-owner-occupant purchase channel; it does not establish renter demand or sale-price competition.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 inventory figures are not published: median MLS listing price, active listings, days on market and price-reduced share therefore cannot test visible supply, marketing time or concessions. Those metrics, if supplied, would be listing-market evidence—not closed sales or proof of buyer demand. Next diligence needs market-rent comps and lease terms to calculate yield; closed-sale and property-condition evidence to validate the value benchmark; and address-level flood, insurance and tax estimates to determine durable carrying costs. The county record supports a conditional screening thesis, not a stabilized cash-flow conclusion.