Woodford County’s tension is headline income economics against soft price evidence and flood-sensitive carrying costs. Zillow’s county reading puts median home value at $355,733, down 2.09% year over year, alongside median asking rent of $1,566 per month. Investors able to verify asset-level rent and flood insurance merit investigation; buyers relying on appreciation or a generic county rent assumption should be cautious. These are county aggregates, not a valuation or lease quote for a particular home.
The reported 5.28% gross yield uses measured market rent and price before costs; it is not net cash flow. A 0.70% effective property-tax rate and $2,108 median annual tax add carrying-cost context, but financing, insurance, maintenance, vacancy and utilities are not published, preventing a net-yield conclusion. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,272, a payment standard rather than asking rent; the supplied comparison places market rent 23.1% above it. FMR cannot substitute for rent in underwriting.
FHFA’s annual repeat-transaction HPI reading declined 0.89% year over year. It directionally supports Zillow’s later negative annual home-value movement, but its index vintage and transaction method differ from Zillow’s county reading, so neither measure supplies a sale price and they cannot be averaged. QCEW reports annual covered employment at county workplaces slipped 0.54%; its average weekly wage is a covered-worker average, while Trade, transportation, and utilities is merely the largest disclosed private supersector. A net inflow of 86 tax-return households had average AGI $2,755 above outmovers. This is a modest demand screen, not tenant-demand proof.
Non-occupants accounted for 28 of 274 purchase mortgages, or 10.22%, showing investor participation but not pricing power or all-cash activity. Inland flood is the dominant hazard; modeled expected annual climate loss equals 0.14% of building value, not a dollar estimate. Active listings, listing-price changes, days on market, price reductions and pending ratio are not published, preventing conclusions on visible MLS supply, seller concessions or marketing time. Property-level flood zone, insurance quotes, condition, lease comps and sale comps remain necessary underwriting checks.