Auburn, NY

Auburn, NY is a decision file with useful cross-source evidence but an explicit measurement gap. Zillow supplies current asking-rent and home-value index levels, yet does not publish enough history here to calculate a trailing-12-month rent change. Accordingly, the 12-month rent change is unavailable, and this report does not assign a score or rank. The relevant question is not whether Auburn belongs above or below another market; it is whether the current rent, value, affordability, labor, supply, migration, financing, and risk measures describe a sufficiently coherent setting for the decision under review. Several measures are directionally different or structurally noncomparable, making source definitions and timing more important than a single headline metric.

At June 30, 2026, Zillow places the asking-rent index at $1,458 and the home-value index at $239,116. The supplied home-value change is 6.23% from the prior year, while the reported gross yield is 7.32%. These figures create a market-level relationship between an advertised rent measure and a broad value measure, but they do not establish realized lease income, turnover, concessions, operating expenses, or net cash flow. The missing Zillow trailing-12-month rent change is especially material: the current rent level can be compared with other supplied levels, but it cannot support a documented statement about recent rent momentum. Zillow's value movement and its asking-rent level therefore should be read together without treating either as a completed income statement.

Census ACS reports median household income of $67,904, with the supplied rent-to-income ratio at 25.76% and price-to-income ratio at 3.52. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,124. Zillow's $1,458 asking-rent index is 1.297 times that HUD benchmark, a computed difference of $334. This is a notable affordability boundary, but not a single like-for-like comparison: Zillow measures an asking-rent index, whereas HUD provides a two-bedroom Fair Market Rent benchmark, and Census ACS reports a household-income median. The income and rent ratios are useful screens, yet the packet does not establish that the Zillow rent level represents the same unit type, household group, or lease condition as the HUD and Census measures.

Labor and for-sale supply indicators also require separation by source and period. BLS LAUS records a 1.29% metro labor change over the 12 months through May 2026. Census Building Permits reports 88 permitted housing units in 2026 through M06, including 10 in the reported five-plus-unit category; permits equal 1.17 per 1,000 residents, and the five-plus category is 11.4% of the total. Redfin, as of May 1, 2026, shows 5.5 months of supply versus 3.8 previously, with median days on market at 98 versus 56. The sale-to-list ratio is 94.86%, while price drops are 25.13%, below the prior 27.56%. Longer selling times and more listed supply coexist with Zillow's 6.23% value change. That tension is not a contradiction to be resolved mechanically: permits are not completed housing, and Redfin's for-sale measures do not directly measure Zillow's asking-rent market.

IRS migration and HMDA mortgage evidence provide separate views of demand and investor participation. IRS county-to-county tax-return migration, aggregated to Auburn, shows 1,348 movers in and 1,376 movers out, for net migration of negative 28. Reported inbound AGI is $55,416 and outbound AGI is $56,338, a gap of negative $922. HMDA reports 572 purchase mortgages in 2024, of which 45 were investor purchases, producing a 7.87% investor share. The migration record and mortgage record should not be collapsed into one demand conclusion. IRS captures tax-return migration, while HMDA provides purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence. The HMDA investor share describes the reported mortgage-purchase set rather than all transactions, all rental households, or all sources of capital.

FEMA's National Risk Index identifies inland flood as Auburn's top hazard, classified as a water hazard. The supplied climate loss ratio is 0.001283 and the FEMA National Risk Index score is 61.5. These are expected annual loss and risk indicators, not evidence of a specific loss experience, insurance premium, repair bill, or tax burden. The available cost-level evidence in this packet is limited to Zillow's asking-rent and home-value indexes and HUD's Fair Market Rent benchmark. No insurance, property-tax, maintenance, utility, or repair-cost series is supplied. FEMA's risk readings therefore belong in the decision record as a separate exposure measure; they cannot be netted against the reported gross yield or translated into a cost conclusion from this evidence alone.

The decision-material questions are now clear. First, the Zillow rent series needs definition review: covered unit mix, asking-rent methodology, geographic coverage, and the reason a trailing-12-month change cannot be calculated. Second, the HUD two-bedroom benchmark and Census ACS household-income measure need to be matched carefully against the renter or housing segment being evaluated, rather than treated as interchangeable with Zillow. Third, the Census Building Permits count needs separation between authorized, completed, and occupied supply, while Redfin's listed inventory and marketing-time measures need to remain confined to the for-sale market. Finally, IRS migration timing, HMDA mortgage coverage, FEMA methodology, and absent cost evidence each mark unresolved boundaries. The record supports focused investigation, not a market rank, rent-growth claim, or broad conclusion about future conditions.