Danville, KY

Danville, KY’s statistical-area reading is a decision frame rather than a market verdict. Zillow reports an asking-rent index of $1,180 and a home-value index of $221,029 for 2026-06-30, but its supplied series does not provide a trailing-12-month rent change. Consequently, the 12-month rent change is unavailable, and this report assigns neither a score nor a rank. The evidence still permits a focused comparison of current rent, value, income, sale-market conditions, migration, mortgage occupancy, permitted supply, and risk. It does not establish a direction for rents, prices, or investment returns. The decision-relevant issue is which differences among those measures need verification before a lease, purchase, or hold decision.

At the current Zillow reading, the supplied gross yield is 6.41%, a mathematical relationship between the asking-rent and home-value indexes rather than a net-income measure. Zillow’s home-value index is 1.89% lower than a year earlier, while its current asking-rent index is observable only as a level. That pairing creates a genuine interpretive tension: values have a stated annual movement, but rent has no comparable stated movement. It would be unsound to label rent momentum, rental demand, or future yield from the current rent level alone. Gross yield also leaves operating, financing, maintenance, tax, insurance, vacancy, and management costs outside the supplied record. Zillow therefore supplies a useful current economics screen, but not evidence that an owner’s cash flow, a renter’s renewal terms, or a buyer’s resale result will follow that screen.

Census ACS reports median household income of $56,921. The supplied rent-to-income measure is 24.88%, and the price-to-income measure is 3.88, placing the Zillow levels beside an income measure without converting either into an actual household budget. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $889.50. Zillow’s asking-rent index is 1.327 times that HUD benchmark, or $290.50 higher; the ratio is 32.7% above the benchmark. This is an affordability boundary rather than a conclusion about a tenant: Census ACS describes household income, HUD supplies a program rent benchmark, and Zillow supplies an asking-rent index. The packet does not identify unit-size matching, household composition, or the share of households paying either figure.

Labor and sales evidence point to conditions that require separation rather than a single supply verdict. BLS LAUS reports area employment up 0.69% in the 12 months to 2026-05. Census Building Permits Survey reports 166 total permits in 2026 YTD through M06, 2.99 permits per 1,000 people, and zero permits in the five-plus category. Redfin’s 2026-05-01 for-sale snapshot shows 4.6 months of supply versus 3.4 previously, median days on market of 57 versus 52, a 96.72% sale-to-list ratio, and price drops of 25.44% versus 35.48%. Thus inventory and market time are higher by 1.2 months and 5 days, while the share with price drops is lower by 10.04 percentage points. Permits are permitted-supply evidence and Redfin is resale-market evidence; neither establishes that job change caused the sales readings or that permits have become completed homes.

IRS county-to-county tax-return migration, aggregated to the market, reports 1,299 moving in and 1,125 moving out, for supplied net migration of 174. Its AGI-in figure is $55,800 against AGI-out of $51,658, a supplied gap of $4,142. Those positive comparisons are a demand-related signal, but they do not state the movers’ tenure choices, their timing relative to the Zillow and Redfin observations, or any connection to individual transactions. HMDA’s 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence reports 542 total purchases and 44 investor purchases, an 8.12% investor share. HMDA therefore indicates investor participation within that stated purchase evidence, not a census of all housing ownership or a measure of investor influence on current asking rents.

Risk evidence has a different unit of analysis from both market price and household affordability. FEMA’s National Risk Index identifies inland flood, a water hazard, as the top hazard; its climate loss ratio is 0.001211 and its risk score is 37.6. These are area-level expected annual loss evidence, not a finding about any neighborhood, parcel, building, or policy. The usable cost-level context in the packet is Zillow’s $1,180 asking-rent index and HUD’s $889.50 Fair Market Rent benchmark, neither of which measures flood insurance, repairs, mitigation, or claims. No supplied cost amount translates FEMA’s metrics into an operating expense. Accordingly, the home-value decline, rent level, and FEMA reading should remain separate observations rather than an asserted risk-cost explanation.

The next decision should be organized around the gaps that the evidence exposes. For a renter, the unresolved comparison is between an offered unit’s lease terms and the broad Zillow and HUD benchmarks; the current data cannot settle that comparison. For a landlord or small investor, the 6.41% gross yield needs a separate accounting of costs excluded from a gross measure before it can inform a net result. A sale-side inquiry can test whether the Redfin inventory, market-time, sale-to-list, and price-drop measures remain current, while a supply inquiry can distinguish permitted units from completed or available units. An occupancy inquiry can keep IRS migration separate from HMDA’s 2024 purchase evidence instead of assuming one explains the other. Finally, any site-specific flood evaluation requires evidence beyond FEMA’s area-level metrics. This is a practical due-diligence map, not a forecast: without Zillow trailing-12-month rent change, the market remains unscored and unranked.