Fergus Falls, MN

Fergus Falls, MN's statistical area has direct evidence across rent, housing, labor, migration, mortgage-purchase occupancy, and hazard measures, yet the evidence does not support a composite market call. The area had a population of 60,475, and the supplied observations run through different points in 2026, with HMDA purchase evidence for 2024. Zillow does not publish enough history to calculate the trailing-12-month rent change, so that measure is unavailable. Accordingly, this report assigns neither a score nor a rank. The useful decision frame is narrower: compare current rent and value benchmarks, identify where employment, sales, permits, and migration give conflicting signals, and isolate which missing records matter before a rental or purchase decision. Each source answers a different question rather than validating the others.

At 2026-06-30, Zillow's asking-rent index is $937 and its home-value index is $340,797. Zillow also reports home-value growth of 6.13% from the prior year and a supplied gross yield of 3.3%. These are the core rent/value economics, but the packet does not supply financing, taxes, insurance, vacancy, utilities, repairs, management, or actual cash flow alongside them. More importantly, Zillow's asking-rent series lacks a trailing-12-month change. The coexistence of a current rent level, a current value index, and an annual value change cannot establish whether rents have risen, fallen, or held steady over the same interval. The $937 index is a current asking-rent reference, not rent-growth evidence, and the 3.3% gross yield cannot be read as a net return.

Census ACS places median household income at $72,255, alongside a 15.56% rent-to-income measure and a 4.72 price-to-income measure. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $983. Zillow's $937 asking-rent index is 95.3% of that HUD benchmark, a $46 arithmetic gap. This pairing sets an affordability boundary, not a conclusion about actual household burden. Census ACS supplies household-income evidence, HUD supplies a two-bedroom Fair Market Rent benchmark, and Zillow supplies an asking-rent index. The packet does not provide a matched unit mix, tenant population, or lease-term comparison across those measures. The evidence therefore supports checking current unit type and lease terms against the available references while leaving actual affordability outcomes unmeasured.

Labor and for-sale/supply readings create the sharpest contemporaneous tension. BLS LAUS reports the metro job measure down 2.24% over the 12 months through 2026-05. Census Building Permits Survey reports 106 new housing permits in 2026 year-to-date through M06, including 24 in structures with five or more units; that is 22.6% of permits and 1.75 permits per 1,000 residents. Redfin, dated 2026-05-01, records 5.6 months of supply versus 3.8 previously, an increase of 1.8 months. Yet median days on market was 27 rather than 28, the sale-to-list ratio was 98.16%, and price drops were 25.89% rather than 28.03%. Higher listed supply does not align uniformly with slower selling or broader reductions in this snapshot. The periods and market segments differ, so these figures warrant a current inventory and permit-pipeline check rather than a directional conclusion.

IRS county-to-county tax-return migration, aggregated to the market, shows 1,310 moved-in records and 1,478 moved-out records, for net migration of -168. Its inbound AGI measure is $69,824, versus $57,656 outbound, a supplied gap of $12,168. That is a composition detail within the migration evidence, not proof of spending, tenancy, or buyer demand. HMDA's 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence reports 659 purchases, of which 46 were investor purchases, a 6.98% investor share. The IRS series concerns migration records and AGI measures, while HMDA identifies purchase occupancy evidence; neither replaces a lease-up record or a count of all housing demand. Negative net migration, higher inbound AGI, and measured investor participation can coexist without establishing their relationship.

FEMA's National Risk Index adds a separate decision boundary. The top listed hazard is inland flood, classified as water, with a National Risk Index score of 79.4 and a climate loss ratio of 0.000947 in FEMA's expected-annual-loss evidence. These indicators are area-level risk evidence; they are not a parcel finding, an insurance quotation, or an operating-cost estimate. The available cost-level references are instead Zillow's rent and value indexes, its 3.3% gross yield, and HUD's $983 Fair Market Rent. The packet contains no taxes, insurance premiums, maintenance expenses, utility costs, or repair records. Consequently, it is not valid to convert the FEMA ratio into a rental expense or to treat the gross yield as a net return. Risk and cost records remain the unobserved side of the economics.

Practical due diligence is clearest when the source boundaries remain intact. For a renter, the outstanding comparison is live asking rents, unit specifications, concessions, and lease obligations against Zillow's $937 index and HUD's $983 two-bedroom reference, together with costs absent from the packet. For a landlord or small investor, the outstanding records are current attainable rents and the full operating-cost record before applying Zillow's 3.3% gross yield; further verification includes whether the Redfin supply reading, Census Building Permits count, and BLS labor reading remain current. A purchase review has a separate question: whether the HMDA occupancy mix and IRS migration composition are consistent with current transaction evidence. FEMA leaves location-specific risk and cost documentation outstanding without implying every home shares the market-level measure. This is an unranked evidence map, not a market prediction: the unavailable Zillow trailing-12-month rent change means no score or rank is assigned.