Hailey, ID

Hailey, ID’s statistical area, with a population of 31,433, presents a decision record with unusually clear level data but a missing rent-change observation. Zillow’s trailing-12-month rent change is unavailable because Zillow does not publish enough history for that calculation. The area is therefore intentionally unranked: this report assigns neither a score nor a rank. The usable evidence instead spans Zillow’s June 30, 2026 rent and value indexes; Census, HUD, BLS, Census Building Permits, Redfin, FEMA, IRS, and HMDA measures at their stated periods. The decision tension is not a single market direction: high recorded Zillow rent and value levels sit alongside income, labor, migration, sale-market, construction, financing, and hazard readings that answer different questions. Treating them as interchangeable would overstate what the packet proves.

Zillow sets the central rent/value economics, but not a rent-growth result. On June 30, 2026, its asking-rent index reads $3,157 and its home-value index reads $1,054,102. The home-value index is 15.94% above its stated prior-year reading, whereas the rent index supplies only the current level in this packet. The supplied 3.59% gross yield connects those Zillow levels as a gross relationship, not as a measure of net income. It neither supplies operating expenses nor fills the unavailable 12-month rent change. Accordingly, the increase in Zillow’s value index cannot stand in for rent momentum, and the rent level cannot establish whether rent has risen, fallen, or held steady over the trailing 12 months. For a decision centered on cash flow or renter payment trajectory, that missing historical comparison is a material boundary.

Census ACS reports median household income of $88,522. The packet’s rent-to-income reading is 42.8%, while its price-to-income reading is 11.91, placing the Zillow rent and value levels beside an income benchmark rather than identifying any individual household’s circumstances. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,071. Zillow’s $3,157 asking-rent index is 2.948 times that HUD figure, a supplied ratio, and the calculated dollar difference is $2,086. These sources have distinct roles: Census measures household income, HUD supplies a two-bedroom program rent benchmark, and Zillow supplies an asking-rent index. The gap is therefore an affordability boundary in the market-level record, not proof that the measures represent the same unit type, household, or lease transaction.

BLS and the Census Building Permits Survey add labor and supply observations that cannot be collapsed into the Redfin sale-market reading. BLS LAUS records a 0.5% metro labor decline over the 12 months through May 2026. Census Building Permits reports 162 total permitted homes in 2026 year-to-date through M06, or 5.15 per 1,000, with zero in the 5-plus-unit category. Redfin, dated May 1, 2026, shows 4.5 months of supply compared with 7.8 previously, a calculated reduction of 3.3 months. Median days on market moved to 55 from 61, while the sale-to-list reading is 98.15%. At the same time, Redfin’s price-reduction reading is 19.89%, versus 11.43% previously, an increase of 8.46 percentage points. Lower listed supply and shorter market time thus appear beside more price reductions, a labor decline, and a separate permitted-supply measure. The evidence documents different conditions and periods; it does not establish one mechanism linking them.

IRS migration evidence introduces another internal tension. In the county-to-county tax-return migration aggregation for this market, the reported inbound count is 789 and the outbound count is 856, producing net migration of negative 67. Yet the inbound AGI reading is $152,119 compared with $107,936 outbound, a supplied gap of $44,183. The count direction is outward while the reported AGI measure is higher on the inbound side. That is a composition difference in the IRS record, not evidence that migration explains Zillow rents or values. HMDA provides a separate lens on mortgage-financed purchase occupancy. In 2024, HMDA records 305 total purchase mortgages, including 31 investor purchases, for an investor share of 10.16%. HMDA is purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence; it is not a complete count of all market transactions or a direct measure of rental demand.

FEMA’s National Risk Index identifies inland flood as Hailey’s top hazard, classified as water, and reports a 53.6 risk score with a climate-loss ratio of 0.002392. Those are expected annual loss evidence, not quoted insurance, repair, or mitigation costs. The available market-level payment and value readings are Zillow’s $3,157 asking-rent index, Zillow’s $1,054,102 home-value index, HUD’s $1,071 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent, Census ACS income of $88,522, and Zillow’s stated 3.59% gross yield. None is a net operating-cost measure. The packet contains no insurance premium, property-tax, utility, maintenance, or mitigation-cost figure. FEMA risk therefore cannot be arithmetically netted against the gross yield or converted into a renter payment burden from this evidence alone.

The practical due-diligence synthesis is a list of unresolved comparisons, not a directional call. The record does not align a 12-month rent series with Zillow’s June 30 asking-rent level; it does not match HUD’s two-bedroom Fair Market Rent with the units represented by Zillow’s index; and it does not show how the 162 permitted homes progress beyond permission into available housing. It also does not tie Redfin’s May 1 listed-sale measures to BLS’s 12-month labor window, explain the IRS count-and-AGI divergence, expand HMDA beyond its purchase-mortgage occupancy scope, or attach a dollar cost to FEMA risk. Those are the factual questions that separate timing, definition, and market-condition tensions in the existing record. Until they are resolved separately, the evidence supports a bounded market review only: Hailey remains unranked, with no score, because the Zillow trailing-12-month rent change is unavailable.