McMinnville, TN

McMinnville, TN presents a level-data decision frame, not a momentum verdict. The metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area has a supplied population of 42,166, but the useful distinction is between current readings and time-series evidence. Zillow provides asking-rent and home-value indexes at June 30, 2026; other sources measure incomes, labor, permits, listings, migration, mortgage occupancy, and risk on their own terms. Crucially, Zillow does not publish a trailing-12-month rent change in this packet. The 12-month rent change is unavailable, so this report is intentionally unranked and assigns neither a score nor a rank. Current rent, value, and yield readings remain informative, but they cannot fill the missing rent-momentum measure or turn separate source scopes into a single market verdict.

Zillow places the asking-rent index at $1,051 and the home-value index at $261,904 on June 30, 2026. The supplied home-value year-over-year change is 1.97%, while the supplied gross yield is 4.82%. These figures establish a current rent/value relationship: Zillow’s rent index is a rent-level measure, the home-value index is a value-level measure, and gross yield is supplied as a separate summary metric. They do not provide a net-cost calculation, lease terms, unit mix, or a rent-growth series. The positive year-over-year value change cannot stand in for the unavailable Zillow rent change because the series describe different measures. A renter can therefore read the rent index as an asking-rent reference, while a landlord or small investor can read the yield only alongside the packet’s missing cost and rent-history evidence.

Census ACS reports median household income of $55,487, with supplied rent-to-income of 22.73% and price-to-income of 4.72. HUD, by contrast, sets FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent at $964. Zillow’s $1,051 asking-rent index is $87 above that HUD benchmark, a difference calculated from the supplied levels; the supplied rent-versus-FMR ratio is 1.09. The apparent tension is useful but bounded. Census ACS is an aggregate household-income source, HUD Fair Market Rent is a two-bedroom benchmark, and Zillow is an asking-rent index. Thus, the data do not establish a tenant’s actual payment, a shared unit definition, or a household burden distribution. The 22.73% aggregate ratio and the above-FMR asking-rent level should be held as distinct affordability references rather than treated as proof that affordability is either comfortable or strained.

On activity and housing supply, BLS LAUS records metro labor change of 1.24% over the 12 months to May 2026. Census Building Permits Survey records 334 permitted homes in 2026 YTD through M06, equal to 7.92 permits per 1,000 residents; 38 permits, or 11.4%, are in the supplied 5+ category. Permits are evidence of authorized supply, not evidence here of completion, occupancy, rental tenure, or rent level. Redfin’s May 1, 2026 for-sale snapshot shows 4.2 months of supply versus 5.6 previously, median days on market of 97 versus 103, a sale-to-list ratio of 97.51%, and price drops on 28.31% of listings versus 31.43%. The smaller supply and shorter market time coexist with recorded permit activity, but those measures occupy different stages and tenures of housing. They cannot, on this record, settle how much completed rental availability exists.

IRS county-to-county tax-return migration, aggregated to this market, records 1,064 moved-in returns and 810 moved-out returns, producing the supplied net migration of 254. Income associated with inbound returns is $62,210, compared with $42,383 for outbound returns, and the supplied AGI gap is $19,827. That is a migration-flow and return-income contrast, not a measure of every resident or of housing tenure. HMDA supplies a different lens: its 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence records 450 purchases, of which 34 are investor purchases, for an investor share of 7.56%. Net in-migration and the inbound AGI gap do not establish renter demand, while the HMDA share does not establish investor participation across the full housing stock or every acquisition channel. The two sources support a bounded observation about reported flows and mortgage-identified occupancy, not a conclusion about who will occupy future units.

FEMA adds a risk screen rather than a price or insurance ledger. Its National Risk Index identifies inland flood as the top hazard, classifies the hazard type as water, reports a risk score of 63.5, and supplies a climate-loss ratio of 0.001456 as expected-annual-loss evidence. These figures identify area-level risk evidence in this packet, but do not report an insurance premium, a repair bill, a deductible, a drainage condition, or an observed realized loss. Consequently, the ratio cannot be translated from the supplied record into a renter’s monthly cost, a landlord’s operating cost, or a property-specific exposure. FEMA’s information introduces a cost-relevant uncertainty that Zillow’s gross yield, Census ACS income measures, HUD FMR, and Redfin listing indicators do not measure.

The practical synthesis is a disciplined separation of confirmed levels from unresolved links. Confirmed levels include Zillow’s rent and value indexes, the Census ACS and HUD affordability references, BLS labor change, Census Building Permits activity, Redfin’s for-sale conditions, IRS migration flows, HMDA mortgage-occupancy share, and FEMA’s risk metrics. The open record concerns whether permitted supply is completed and available for rent, whether asking rents are reflected in executed leases and concessions, whether tax-return flows correspond to housing choices, and how area-level flood risk appears in actual cost documents. A next-stage decision file can test those links without treating any single source as a substitute for another. Until then, the defensible use of the packet is to investigate the stated gaps and keep rent momentum, operating costs, tenure, and completed supply separate; it is not to assign McMinnville a score, rank, forecast, or market-wide conclusion.