Opelousas, LA

Opelousas presents a decision problem with substantial direct evidence but an important missing trend measure. The market population is 81,670, and the packet covers rents, home values, household income, labor change, permits, for-sale conditions, migration, mortgage occupancy, and hazard exposure. Yet Zillow does not publish enough rent history here to calculate a trailing-12-month rent change. That absence matters because Zillow’s asking-rent index is the available rent reference, but its recent direction cannot be measured from this packet. Opelousas is therefore intentionally unranked: this report does not assign a score or rank. The useful question is not whether the market belongs above or below another area, but which unresolved relationships—asking rent versus household resources, value movement versus sales conditions, and market-level risk versus operating costs—would materially change a local rental decision.

Zillow reports an asking-rent index of $1,129 and a home-value index of $133,082 as of 2026-06-30. The reported gross yield is 10.18%, creating an initially favorable rent-to-value relationship on the packet’s measures. At the same time, Zillow’s home-value index is down 4.19% year over year. Those observations point in different directions: the current asking-rent level is substantial relative to the reported value level, while the home-value series has declined over its stated annual comparison. Neither result establishes achieved rent, sale proceeds, vacancy, concessions, operating income, or financing costs. Zillow’s measures are asking-rent and home-value indexes, not a lease ledger or a transaction-by-transaction appraisal record. Most importantly, the missing trailing-12-month Zillow rent change means the packet cannot determine whether the current rent index reflects recent rent growth, decline, or stability. That uncertainty is central rather than cosmetic because the yield figure cannot substitute for a rent-growth series.

Census ACS reports median household income of $44,462, while the packet’s rent-to-income measure is 30.48% and its price-to-income measure is 2.99. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $834, compared with Zillow’s $1,129 asking-rent index; the reported rent-to-FMR ratio is 1.354. This is an affordability boundary to examine, not proof that every renter faces the same burden or that every unit commands the Zillow index. Census ACS describes household income, HUD provides a two-bedroom Fair Market Rent benchmark, and Zillow provides an asking-rent index; their scopes are distinct. The gap between the Zillow and HUD figures warrants unit-mix, bedroom-count, geography, lease-term, and concession evidence before treating either figure as a practical rent target. The reported income and price ratios likewise describe broad market measures rather than a particular household’s ability to pay or a particular owner’s costs.

Supply evidence is mixed and must be kept separate by source and timing. BLS, using the LAUS labor-change measure, reports job growth of 1.79% over the 12 months through 2026-05. Census Building Permits reports 146 permitted homes through M06 of 2026, or 1.79 permits per 1,000 residents, with 0 permits in the 5+ category. Permit issuance records potential new supply, but the packet does not show completions, tenure, leasing, or absorption. Redfin’s 2026-05-01 for-sale data show 4.7 months of supply, down from 5.5, and median days on market of 99, down from 108. However, the sale-to-list ratio is 0.9556 and price drops rose to 35.96% from 25.36%. Lower listed supply and shorter market time sit alongside a below-list sale-to-list ratio and more widespread reductions. That tension does not identify a single market direction, and it should not be converted into a rental conclusion: Redfin measures the for-sale market, while Census Building Permits measures authorizations rather than occupied rental inventory.

IRS and HMDA add a demand-side and participation boundary. IRS county-to-county tax-return migration aggregated to the market shows 1,651 moves in and 1,873 moves out, for net migration of -222. Incoming adjusted gross income is $42,478, compared with $46,948 for outgoing adjusted gross income, producing the reported AGI gap of -$4,470. These migration and income figures are relevant to the composition of tax-return flows, but they do not identify housing tenure, rent levels, or reasons for moving. HMDA provides a different lens: in 2024 it records 539 purchase mortgages, including 34 investor purchases, for an investor share of 6.31%. HMDA is purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence, not a full register of all housing purchases, cash transactions, rental units, or investors. The measured investor share is therefore a bounded participation indicator. It neither proves that investors dominate Opelousas nor resolves whether investor-financed purchases were added to the rental stock.

FEMA’s National Risk Index evidence gives Opelousas a risk dimension that cannot be reduced to the Zillow yield figure. The FEMA risk score is 88.2, the reported climate-loss ratio is 0.001987, and the top hazard is inland flood within the water hazard type. These are market-level expected annual loss indicators, not verification of exposure, loss experience, insurance terms, or mitigation conditions for any specific location. The packet contains no insurance-premium, deductible, property-tax, utility-cost, repair-cost, or flood-protection-cost figures. Its available cost-level references are instead Zillow’s asking-rent and home-value indexes and HUD’s two-bedroom Fair Market Rent. Those figures can describe the broad rent and value backdrop, but they cannot be netted against FEMA risk evidence to derive an operating margin. The practical uncertainty is whether the market-level risk signal is matched by costs or protections that are absent from the packet.

A practical due-diligence file for a renter, landlord, or small investor would need to resolve the evidence gaps rather than force a directional conclusion. The rent file needs Zillow-compatible local asking-rent history, achieved-rent evidence, unit mix, lease terms, and concessions so that the missing trailing-12-month rent change can be separated from the current $1,129 index level. The affordability file needs comparable geography and bedroom definitions for Census ACS, HUD, and Zillow measures. The supply file needs permitted-versus-completed housing, tenure, and availability evidence, while preserving the distinction between Redfin’s for-sale indicators and rental conditions. The demand file needs current migration context alongside the 2024 HMDA mortgage-occupancy evidence, without assuming either determines lease demand. Finally, FEMA’s inland-flood signal needs cost and coverage evidence before it can be evaluated beside rent and value measures. Until those questions are answered, the packet supports a disciplined investigation of conflicting signals, not a rank, score, forecast, or market-wide recommendation.