Red Wing, MN

Red Wing, MN has enough direct evidence to frame a decision inquiry, but not enough Zillow rent history to support a ranked result. Zillow does not publish the trailing-12-month rent change required here, so that change is unavailable; this report assigns neither a score nor a market rank. The useful starting point is a set of cross-source tensions: Zillow supplies a current asking-rent and home-value snapshot, Census and HUD provide income and rent-benchmark context, while BLS, Census Building Permits, and Redfin show labor, permitted-supply, and resale-market measures that do not move in a single direction. IRS and HMDA narrow the demand picture to migration and purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence. FEMA adds a water-risk lens. For a renter, landlord, or small investor, the packet supports questions about measurement, current conditions, and missing cost evidence rather than a directional conclusion.

Zillow's June 30, 2026 readings put asking rent at $1,297 and the home-value index at $332,374. The home-value measure was up 0.0241 year over year, and the reported gross yield is 0.0468. Those figures can be placed alongside one another as current rent, current value, and a gross return measure, but they do not establish a rent trend. In particular, the positive home-value change is a Zillow value-index result, not evidence that rents are rising at the same pace or in the same direction. Zillow's unavailable trailing-12-month rent change is therefore the key analytical boundary. The packet also contains no operating-expense, financing, tax, insurance, repair, or vacancy figure, so gross yield cannot be converted into a net-income measure from these facts alone.

Affordability evidence is similarly bounded by the definitions of its sources. Census ACS reports median household income of $84,171, with a supplied rent-to-income measure of 0.1849 and price-to-income measure of 3.95. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,095. Zillow's $1,297 asking-rent reading is $202 higher than that HUD benchmark, a difference of 18.5 percent, consistent with the supplied rent-versus-FMR ratio of 1.185. This comparison is informative precisely because Zillow, Census ACS, and HUD measure different things: asking rent, market-level household income, and a two-bedroom Fair Market Rent benchmark. It is not a finding about any household's rent burden, any unit's contract rent, or the distribution of incomes and rents within Red Wing.

Supply and market-friction readings add an important tension. BLS LAUS reports a metro labor-change reading of -0.0023 for the 12 months through 2026-05. Census Building Permits Survey data show 74 total permits through 2026 M06, zero in the 5-plus category, and 1.54 permits per 1,000 residents. Permits represent approved new supply rather than completed housing, so the record does not show what has been delivered. Redfin, dated 2026-05-01, reports 2.3 months of supply versus 3.2 previously, while median days on market rose to 33 from 20 and the price-drops measure rose to 0.3521 from 0.2394. That is a 0.9-month reduction in supply alongside a 13-day increase in market time and an 11.27-percentage-point increase in price drops. The sale-to-list ratio is 0.996. These readings should not be fused into one directional signal, especially because the permits and Redfin periods are not identical.

IRS and HMDA provide constrained evidence about demand composition. IRS county-to-county tax-return migration aggregated to the market records 1,236 inbound moves and 1,238 outbound moves, for net migration of -2. The associated inbound AGI figure is $65,486, compared with $63,905 outbound, leaving a supplied AGI gap of $1,581. The near balance in flows does not establish a broader population trend, but it prevents the packet from portraying migration as a large net inflow or outflow. HMDA's 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence records 503 total purchases and 25 investor purchases, producing an investor share of 0.0497. That share describes HMDA's stated purchase-mortgage scope; it should not be generalized into a measure of all market transactions or all forms of investor activity.

FEMA's National Risk Index identifies inland flood as the top hazard, within the water hazard type. Its expected-annual-loss evidence includes a climate loss ratio of 0.001627 and an NRI risk score of 43.3. These are material risk-screening facts, but they do not establish exposure, damage, insurance pricing, or mitigation cost for a particular site. The available financial levels are Zillow's $1,297 asking rent, Zillow's $332,374 home value, and HUD's $1,095 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent; none is an operating-cost figure. No insurance-premium, repair-cost, tax, or other recurring-cost measure is supplied. FEMA therefore broadens the inquiry beyond rent and resale snapshots without supporting a claim that flood risk has caused any observed price, rent, labor, migration, or inventory result.

The practical synthesis is not a selection verdict but a list of unresolved intersections. Zillow's current rent, value gain, and gross yield need a published rent-history series before annual rent performance can be assessed. Census ACS and HUD require careful alignment of income, asking-rent, and two-bedroom benchmark definitions before drawing affordability conclusions. BLS, Census Building Permits, and Redfin leave a mixed record: negative labor change, limited permitted supply, lower months of supply, longer market time, and more price drops. IRS and HMDA show nearly balanced recorded migration and a 0.0497 investor share within purchase mortgages, not a complete demand census. FEMA adds inland-flood expected-loss evidence while actual cost figures remain absent. The next fact-finding task is to reconcile those source scopes and periods, obtain the missing Zillow rent history, and identify cost and risk documentation that this packet does not contain. No pricing, acquisition, leasing, or ranking conclusion follows from the current evidence.