Sayre, PA

The Sayre, PA statistical area presents a mixed evidence set rather than a single directional signal. The supplied population is 59,858, while the current packet pairs a Zillow home-value increase with a BLS employment decline and negative IRS net migration. Those measures cover different populations and time windows, so they cannot be fused into one demand conclusion. Most importantly, Zillow does not publish enough rent history here to calculate a trailing-12-month rent change. That change is unavailable; accordingly, this report assigns no score and no rank. The decision frame is therefore level-based and scope-specific: what current rent, value, affordability, labor, construction, resale, migration, mortgage-occupancy, and hazard measures say individually, and which mismatches remain for investigation.

At 2026-06-30, Zillow’s asking-rent index is $989 and Zillow’s home-value index is $207,132. The stated home-value year-over-year change is 0.0507, but no corresponding trailing-12-month Zillow rent change exists. The supplied gross yield is 0.0573, and the price-to-income ratio is 3.25; these are market-level screens alongside Zillow’s indexes, not a property-level income statement. The $989 rent level and $207,132 value level can be read together as a current snapshot, but they do not establish lease renewal performance, achieved rent, operating costs, vacancy, or a return for any asset. Zillow therefore provides present-level rent and value economics plus a home-value change observation, while withholding the rent-trend measurement needed for a scored or ranked comparison.

Census ACS reports median household income of $63,675. Against that income measure, the packet gives a rent-to-income ratio of 0.1864 and a price-to-income ratio of 3.25. HUD lists a FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent of $1,066, versus Zillow asking rent of $989. The simple level difference is $77, and Zillow rent is 0.928 of the HUD figure, as supplied. This is an affordability boundary rather than an assertion that the series represent identical units or lease terms: Census ACS measures household income, HUD provides a two-bedroom Fair Market Rent benchmark, and Zillow provides an asking-rent index. The contrast leaves unit mix and rent definitions unresolved before the gap can be treated as a tenant-budget or landlord-revenue conclusion.

Labor and supply data create another cross-source tension. BLS LAUS records area employment change of -0.0052 over the 12 months to 2026-05. Census Building Permits Survey records 62 total permits in 2026 year to date through M06, with none in buildings containing five or more units; the reported rate is 1.04 permits per 1,000 people and the five-plus share is 0.0. These figures describe permitted housing, not completions or occupied rentals. Separately, Redfin’s 2026-05-01 resale snapshot shows 2.9 months of supply, compared with 3.6 previously; median days on market of 43, compared with 59; a sale-to-list ratio of 0.9626; and price drops on a 0.1282 share of listings, compared with 0.1649. Redfin describes listed homes for sale, whereas BLS and Census Building Permits capture labor and authorized construction. The Redfin prior-period changes do not resolve the negative BLS reading.

Movement and mortgage data also need separate treatment. IRS county-to-county tax-return migration, aggregated to Sayre, records 1,015 moved in and 1,090 moved out, for net migration of -75. Its reported AGI figures are $59,856 inbound and $58,811 outbound, a supplied gap of $1,045. That positive AGI difference coexists with net out-migration; neither datum converts into a forecast of tenant formation or housing demand. HMDA’s 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence records 505 purchases, including 36 investor purchases, for an investor share of 0.0713. HMDA places an observed mortgage-purchase investor component beside the IRS movement record, but it does not convert either source into a full count of all local household moves or transaction types. The relevant tension is positive reported AGI difference alongside more movers leaving than arriving, with a measured but limited-scope investor share.

FEMA’s National Risk Index supplies the packet’s hazard evidence: inland flood is identified as the top hazard, with hazard type water, an NRI risk score of 73.1, and a climate loss ratio of 0.001994. These are area-level risk and expected-annual-loss evidence, not findings about any parcel, building, insurance premium, repair bill, or prior event. The available cost-level evidence remains the measured rent contrast: Zillow asking rent is $989 and HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,066. There is no insurance-cost figure, flood-policy figure, utility figure, tax figure, or property-condition measure in the packet. FEMA’s risk measures and the Zillow/HUD level contrast can therefore be held as separate screens, but neither quantifies an individual occupant’s or owner’s exposure.

The practical due-diligence synthesis is an evidence map, not a directional verdict. Zillow provides a $989 asking-rent level, a $207,132 home-value level, and a 0.0507 year-over-year home-value change, while its missing rent history prevents a trailing-12-month rent calculation and any score or rank. Census ACS and HUD provide an income and Fair Market Rent boundary; BLS shows employment down; Census Building Permits reports 62 authorized permits and no five-plus permits; Redfin shows lower supply and shorter marketing time than its prior values; IRS shows net migration of -75; HMDA records 36 investor purchases; and FEMA identifies inland flood as the top hazard. The remaining investigative questions concern non-equivalent rent definitions, the permitted-project pipeline and completion status, the separation of resale listings from rental availability, specific-location exposure to FEMA’s water hazard, and the difference between mortgage occupancy evidence and the transaction records relevant to a decision.