Show Low, AZ
Show Low merits selective investigation by buyers who can tolerate modest income returns and weak employment; investors dependent on near-term job growth or easy resale should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Show Low merits selective investigation by buyers who can tolerate modest income returns and weak employment; investors dependent on near-term job growth or easy resale should avoid it. The $401,646 median value produces a 5.15% gross yield, while LAUS employment fell 2.05% year over year.
The opportunity is negotiating leverage rather than an unqualified demand story. Asking rent rose 2.66%, but rent already absorbs 37.87% of median household income. Meanwhile, 8.7 months of supply, a 46-day median marketing period, and price reductions on 28.69% of listings let buyers be selective while signaling soft resale conditions.
Net migration was positive at 273 households, a modest counter-signal to job weakness. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.1717%, so insurance terms and property-level water exposure belong in underwriting.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
What do current rents imply for property income?
How much negotiating leverage does the listing market show?
What climate exposure is identified?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Show Low as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 12 | 30% | 3.60 |
| Rent trend | 38 | 25% | 9.50 |
| Affordability | 3 | 15% | 0.45 |
| Supply pressure | 8 | 15% | 1.20 |
| Climate risk | 33 | 15% | 4.95 |
| Published score | 20 | ||
Job: LAUS employment fell 2.05% year over year -> labor-market support for rental demand is weak.
Rent: Asking rent rose 2.66%, but gross yield is 5.15% -> rent momentum is positive while income relative to property value remains modest.
Affordability: Rent consumes 37.87% of median household income and the price-to-income ratio is 7.36 -> rent headroom and the local buyer pool may be constrained.
Supply: 8.7 months of supply, a 46-day median marketing period, and price reductions on 28.69% of listings -> buyers have negotiating leverage, but resale conditions are soft.
Climate: Inland flood is the dominant hazard and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.1717% -> property-level water exposure requires scrutiny.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- LAUS employment fell 2.05% year over year, leaving a weak labor-market backdrop.
- A 5.15% gross yield sits alongside a 37.87% rent-to-income burden, limiting pre-expense return and apparent rent headroom.
- With 8.7 months of supply and price reductions on 28.69% of listings, resale liquidity may disappoint.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Show Low
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Show Low, AZ (Target) | 20 | $402k | $1,723 | 5.1% | ▼ 2.1% |
| Lake Havasu City, AZ | 21 | $356k | $1,553 | 5.2% | ▼ 1.2% |
| Cañon City, CO | 20 | $343k | $1,438 | 5.0% | ▼ 1.4% |
| Great Falls, MT | 42 | $345k | $1,365 | 4.7% | ▼ 2.5% |
| Bloomington, IN | 34 | $306k | $1,442 | 5.7% | ▼ 2.6% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |