Tucson, AZ
Tucson merits selective investigation by yield-focused buyers who can underwrite weak employment and flood exposure; buyers needing strong job momentum or low hazard risk should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Tucson merits selective investigation by yield-focused buyers who can underwrite weak employment and flood exposure; buyers needing strong job momentum or low hazard risk should avoid it. The median home value is $343,107, down 2.1% year over year, while asking rent is $1,483, up 0.78%, with a 5.19% gross yield.
The opportunity is negotiating room rather than broad demand strength. Inventory stands at 3.7 months, median days on market is 70, and 28.88% of listings had price drops. Positive net migration offers a counterweight, but CES employment fell 0.24%, so tenant demand should not be assumed from migration alone.
Affordability is mixed: rent equals 25.32% of median income, but home values equal 4.88 times income. The main underwriting risk is inland flood; the published annual climate loss ratio is 0.2405% of building value. Treat the softer purchase market as an entry opportunity only if property-level flood exposure and achievable rent hold up in diligence.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
What are the published rent and yield benchmarks?
Is tax-filer household migration positive?
How much investor participation is recorded?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Tucson as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 35 | 30% | 10.50 |
| Rent trend | 14 | 25% | 3.50 |
| Affordability | 45 | 15% | 6.75 |
| Supply pressure | 31 | 15% | 4.65 |
| Climate risk | 16 | 15% | 2.40 |
| Published score | 28 | ||
CES employment fell 0.24% year over year -> the labor-market signal does not support a demand-led purchase thesis.
Median asking rent rose 0.78% to $1,483 and gross yield is 5.19% -> income is holding up despite modest rent growth.
Rent is 25.32% of median income while price is 4.88 times income -> renting looks less stretched than buying.
With 3.7 months of supply, 70 median days on market, and price drops on 28.88% of listings -> buyers have evidence of negotiating room.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.2405% -> flood exposure belongs in property-level underwriting.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- CES employment declined 0.24% year over year, leaving the market without a positive job signal.
- A 70-day median market time and price drops on 28.88% of listings show resale softness.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with a published annual climate loss ratio of 0.2405% of building value.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
Metros that behave like Tucson
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson, AZ (Target) | 28 | $343k | $1,483 | 5.2% | ▼ 0.2% |
| Albuquerque, NM | 31 | $354k | $1,522 | 5.2% | ▼ 0.8% |
| Chattanooga, TN | 28 | $328k | $1,519 | 5.6% | ▼ 0.5% |
| Springfield, MA | 51 | $382k | $1,904 | 6.0% | ▼ 0.3% |
| Louisville, KY | 37 | $284k | $1,385 | 5.9% | ▼ 0.8% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |