Moving from Chicago to Phoenix

The IRS SOI 2022-2023 migration release shows 3,626 tax-return households moving from Chicago to Phoenix, within opposite metro-wide return-migration balances: Chicago recorded a net outbound balance of 22,024 tax-return households, while Phoenix recorded a net inbound balance of 12,377. The corridor’s average AGI was $128,155.27 per return, but AGI is a tax measure rather than salary or tenant income. Across all return moves, Chicago’s average AGI was $84,568 for incoming returns and $111,893 for outgoing returns; Phoenix’s corresponding figures were $89,377 and $78,275. These patterns describe different mover pools, not the earnings trajectory of a household relocating on this corridor.

ACS 2024 median household income was $90,887 in Chicago and $88,301 in Phoenix. Separately, BLS CES payroll employment for the year ended June 2026 was up 0.15% in Chicago and 0.23% in Phoenix. The releases cover different periods and populations, so they are context rather than a synchronized affordability test. Payroll change does not establish property vacancy, tenant demand or collections. For a household, the next question is whether the Phoenix job offer and after-tax income fit the intended lease. For an owner, it is the income profile, employment mix and payment history of the property’s actual tenant pool.

At the June 30, 2026 Zillow ZORI observation, Phoenix’s $1,733 asking rent sat below Chicago’s $2,275. The recent direction also differed: Phoenix was down 0.1% year over year, while Chicago was up 5.29%. This is a metro asking-rent contrast, not a quote for matched apartments. HUD’s program-standard Fair Market Rent has the opposite ordering for a two-bedroom unit, another reason to compare the exact neighborhood, unit type, utilities, concessions and renewal language. A relocating household should treat the Zillow gap as a search starting point rather than a settled monthly budget.

On ownership, the ZHVI metro Zillow home-value benchmark was $447,054 in Phoenix and $359,888 in Chicago. The corresponding market-level gross-yield screens were 4.65% and 7.59%. ZHVI is a home-value benchmark, not a transaction price or acquisition basis. A cross-release comparison of ACS 2024 income with June 2026 Zillow observations gives a Phoenix rent-to-income screen of 23.56% versus Chicago’s 30.04%, while the price-to-income screens are 5.06 and 3.96. These are directional screening ratios across different vintages, not current household budget shares. Phoenix therefore screens more favorably on asking rent relative to income but less favorably on home value relative to income and on gross yield. Property-level rent, taxes and insurance remain the next test.

BEA’s 2024 Regional Price Parities show a Phoenix housing component of 121.236 versus Chicago’s 112.01, even though the all-items indexes were close at 103.316 and 103.595. Those indexes describe metropolitan price levels; they do not state what a particular household or property will spend. FEMA’s NRI counties ArcGIS release also reports a higher modeled climate/hazard loss ratio for Phoenix, at 0.1586%, than for Chicago, at 0.1277%. Inland flood is the top hazard label for both markets. This is a modeled climate/hazard loss ratio only, not a property insurance quote. The relevant diligence is an address-specific review of coverage, exclusions, deductibles, flood exposure and utility requirements.

The Census BPS year-to-date 2026 permit period through June, scaled by ACS 2024 population, forms a cross-period descriptive screen: 6.78 permitted units per thousand residents in Phoenix versus 1.58 in Chicago. It is not a same-period supply rate and does not establish deliveries, vacancy or rent pressure. HMDA 2024 purchase originations show investor shares of 6.27% in Phoenix and 8.26% in Chicago. Those shares are descriptive screens, not proof of buyer competition. For Phoenix underwriting, the next question is how many comparable rentals are operating, under construction or offering concessions within the property’s submarket, followed by the actual tax, insurance, utility and maintenance burden.