Moving from Detroit to Chicago

BLS CES payroll employment over the twelve months to 2026-06 was down 0.66% in Detroit and up 0.15% in Chicago. Payroll change does not establish property vacancy or rent collections. The ACS 2024 five-year median household-income benchmark was $76,664 in Detroit and $90,887 in Chicago. BEA’s 2024 Regional Price Parities place the all-items index at 100.298 for Detroit and 103.595 for Chicago, while the housing indexes were 94.69 and 112.01. The income comparison therefore belongs beside Chicago’s higher regional price-level readings rather than standing alone.

At the different IRS SOI migration 2022–2023 vintage, Detroit-to-Chicago returns reported $78,540.18 of AGI per return. That is tax-return AGI, not a wage, current salary or household spending limit. The same release records net IRS migration of -7,816 returns for Detroit and -22,024 for Chicago; neither raw net is a population-normalized rate. Chicago’s positive payroll reading and more negative raw IRS net are contrary signals rather than a single demand conclusion. The next diligence question is how the household’s occupation and the property’s tenant base align with specific employers, pay ranges and employment concentration.

At the 2026-06-30 Zillow metro observation, ZORI asking rent was $1,518 in Detroit and $2,275 in Chicago, while ZHVI was $271,675 and $359,888. These are market-level benchmarks, not the rent or sale price of a selected unit. HUD’s FY2026 Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom was $1,411 in Detroit and $1,781 in Chicago. Fair Market Rent is a HUD program standard, not a Zillow market-rent observation. Both source families show a higher Chicago housing benchmark, but their definitions serve different screening purposes.

The rent-to-income screen combining 2026-06-30 ZORI with ACS 2024 five-year income was 23.76% for Detroit and 30.04% for Chicago. The corresponding ZHVI-to-income screens were 3.54 times and 3.96 times. These are cross-release directional screens, not current household budget shares. The same Zillow-date gross-yield screen was 6.70% in Detroit and 7.59% in Chicago, a counterpoint to a simple higher-price reading. Gross yield does not report taxes, insurance, operating costs, capital work, financing or achieved rent. The next underwriting question is whether verified unit rent and property-specific expenses retain the metro-level spread after a realistic vacancy and capital schedule.

FEMA’s National Risk Index counties release places Chicago’s modeled climate/hazard loss ratio at 0.1277%, compared with 0.0915% for Detroit. Inland flood is the top identified hazard in both markets. The metro contrast is not a parcel-level flood determination, an insurance quote or a loss forecast. Underwriting should ask where the building sits relative to mapped flood areas, what elevation and mitigation documentation exists, and what coverage limits, exclusions and deductibles appear in a current insurer indication.

HMDA 2024 purchase originations show investor shares of 8.26% in Chicago and 7.96% in Detroit. Those are descriptive screens, not proof of buyer competition. A separate permits-per-thousand-residents screen combines BPS 2026 YTD through M06 permits with ACS 2024 population: 1.58 in Chicago and 1.73 in Detroit. This is explicitly a cross-period descriptive screen, not a same-period supply rate. Permit authorizations are not proof of deliveries, vacancy or rent pressure. The next market-risk question is where permitted projects sit, what stage they have reached, and how their unit types and rents compare with the subject property’s actual competitive set.