Five-year movement by Census region

The 2026 rental market momentum atlas

How did direct Zillow asking-rent and typical-home-value movement differ across US rental markets and Census regions over the latest exact five-year window?

This finite annual atlas keeps the two Zillow series on a shared same-month window, maps their arithmetic gap and adds Census-region context without turning historical movement into a score or forecast.

Complete markets
319
direct five-year rent and home-value endpoints
Census regions
4
primary-state assignment; all four represented
Fastest regional rent median
34.4%
Midwest
Largest regional median gap
7.7%
West · rent minus home values
What the regional view adds

National movement was not one uniform rental cycle

The complete five-year intersection contains 319 current market areas from 2021-06 to 2026-06. Across that set, median asking rent changed 30.0%, median typical home value changed 26.4%, and the median rent-minus-value gap was 4.4%.

Northeast34.3%median rent · 35.3% home values41 complete markets · gap -0.8%
Midwest34.4%median rent · 29.7% home values69 complete markets · gap 4.4%
South28.9%median rent · 26.0% home values132 complete markets · gap 2.9%
West24.3%median rent · 16.0% home values77 complete markets · gap 7.7%

Midwest has the highest regional median asking-rent movement at 34.4%. The largest median rent-minus-value gap belongs to West at 7.7%. These are unweighted medians, so a region with many small markets does not become a population-weighted national claim.

A positive gap does not have one cause. It can come from faster asking rent, slower home values or both. The chart and table keep both component paths visible.

At the market level, Abilene, TX records the largest rent-ahead gap, while McAllen, TX sits at the opposite end. Use the momentum atlas to inspect the national geography, then open the monthly history and current supply, jobs, migration and affordability evidence before interpreting either extreme.

319 complete markets · unweighted regional medians

Five-year movement by Census region

Each line keeps regional asking-rent and typical-home-value medians separate; the right label reports the median of individual market gaps.

Five-year Zillow asking-rent and home-value movement by Census regionFour horizontal dumbbell rows compare the unweighted median five-year asking-rent change and typical-home-value change among complete markets assigned to each market's primary-state Census region.0%8%15%23%30%38%Northeast41 marketsNortheast median home-value change 35.3%Northeast median asking-rent change 34.3%gap -0.8%Midwest69 marketsMidwest median home-value change 29.7%Midwest median asking-rent change 34.4%gap 4.4%South132 marketsSouth median home-value change 26.0%South median asking-rent change 28.9%gap 2.9%West77 marketsWest median home-value change 16.0%West median asking-rent change 24.3%gap 7.7%Cumulative five-year index change →
Regions use each market's primary state. Medians are unweighted across complete markets. The median gap can differ from median rent minus median home-value change; missing direct endpoints stay outside every statistic.
Decision table

The first 24 rows, with a path to the underlying market

319 total rows Download all rows
Largest exact five-year rent-minus-home-value gaps with Census-region context
Gap rankMarketRegionRent startRent endRent changeHome value changeGapOpen
1Abilene, TX2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,035$1,93587.0%25.6%61.3%Open atlas
2Johnstown, PA2021-06 → 2026-06Northeast$633$86336.4%-9.2%45.5%Open atlas
3Williston, ND2021-06 → 2026-06Midwest$838$1,25650.0%13.3%36.7%Open atlas
4New Orleans, LA2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,350$1,61719.8%-4.5%24.3%Open atlas
5Sumter, SC2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,085$1,50438.6%16.0%22.6%Open atlas
6Redding, CA2021-06 → 2026-06West$1,265$1,65030.4%8.5%21.8%Open atlas
7Jackson, MI2021-06 → 2026-06Midwest$783$1,12143.2%21.3%21.8%Open atlas
8Oak Harbor, WA2021-06 → 2026-06West$1,530$2,05234.2%12.4%21.8%Open atlas
9Beaumont, TX2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,039$1,29724.8%3.6%21.3%Open atlas
10San Francisco, CA2021-06 → 2026-06West$2,647$3,30124.7%3.8%20.9%Open atlas
11Punta Gorda, FL2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,491$1,89627.1%7.2%19.9%Open atlas
12Shreveport, LA2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,091$1,35824.4%4.6%19.8%Open atlas
13Fairbanks, AK2021-06 → 2026-06West$1,348$1,74429.3%9.6%19.7%Open atlas
14Ruston, LA2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,106$1,40226.7%8.2%18.5%Open atlas
15Odessa, TX2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,176$1,55131.9%13.8%18.1%Open atlas
16Tuscaloosa, AL2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,098$1,48034.7%16.9%17.8%Open atlas
17Corvallis, OR2021-06 → 2026-06West$1,310$1,80737.9%20.3%17.6%Open atlas
18Salinas, CA2021-06 → 2026-06West$2,182$2,90633.2%16.1%17.0%Open atlas
19Midland, TX2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,224$1,62032.3%15.3%16.9%Open atlas
20Florence, AL2021-06 → 2026-06South$775$1,12244.7%27.9%16.9%Open atlas
21Harrisonburg, VA2021-06 → 2026-06South$1,262$1,80743.2%26.5%16.7%Open atlas
22Chico, CA2021-06 → 2026-06West$1,314$1,56018.7%2.1%16.6%Open atlas
23Boise City, ID2021-06 → 2026-06West$1,575$1,87419.0%2.6%16.5%Open atlas
24Columbia, MO2021-06 → 2026-06Midwest$956$1,41547.9%32.3%15.7%Open atlas

The visible table is intentionally limited for reading. The CSV contains every row that passes the printed inclusion rule.

Reproduce the screen

Inclusion first, interpretation second.

Include every current RentMarker market area with direct Zillow ZORI and ZHVI observations in the latest month and the same month five years earlier. Assign the market to the Census region of its primary state, then summarize unweighted market medians within each of the four regions.

Methodology version: v12

Method

  1. Five-year asking-rent change divides the ending direct monthly ZORI value by the same-month starting value and subtracts one.
  2. Five-year typical-home-value change applies the identical calculation and endpoints to direct monthly ZHVI.
  3. The growth gap subtracts home-value change from asking-rent change; regional values are unweighted medians of complete markets, not population-weighted scores.

Counter-signals

  • A positive gap can reflect faster rent growth, slower home-value growth or both, so the two component changes must remain visible.
  • Current levels, yield, employment, supply and migration can differ sharply between markets with similar five-year movement.
  • Regional medians describe a broad distribution and do not replace the individual market record or local due diligence.

Limitations

  • ZHVI and ZORI are smoothed market indexes, not a matched property portfolio or observed acquisition-and-lease pair.
  • Only direct same-month endpoints enter; missing observations remain unavailable and no interpolation or imputation is used.
  • The changes are nominal, the Census region follows the market's primary state, and historical movement does not prove future rent, appreciation or return.
Move from market to deal

Use the study to narrow the question—not to skip underwriting.

Open a market for its supply, affordability, migration and risk context. Compare a deliberate substitute, then bring a real property price, rent and expenses into the stress test.

Explore the momentum atlas Stress-test a dealOpen curated comparisons
Source vintages

Every input release used by this study

Release and retrieval dates stay visible so a reader can tell whether two measures describe the same moment.

acs populationCensus ACS 5-year — populationACS 2024 5-year · retrieved 2026-07-26cbsa delineationOMB/BLS delineation — metro geographyOMB July 2023 delineation · retrieved 2026-07-30zillow zhviZillow ZHVI — metro home valuesMetro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · retrieved 2026-07-26zillow zoriZillow ZORI — metro market rentsMetro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · retrieved 2026-07-26