States / District of Columbia
State rental intelligence

District of Columbia rental market data

A source-traced view across 1 metro markets and 1 counties. State figures below are labelled medians and totals—not a made-up statewide investment score.

1/1 metros scored1/1 counties with FEMA risk14 sources used in this analysis
Median scored metro29.0out of 100 · 1 measured metros
District of Columbia identity diorama showing regional landscape, cities, housing, and infrastructure
Median metro home value$585kmedian across published metro values
Median metro rent$2,448monthly · published metro values
Median gross yield5.0%annual rent ÷ price · before costs
Median job trend▼ 2.3%trailing 12-month metro employment
State research brief

A 1,673-mover net inflow coexists with a 2.3% employment decline, a $31,154 outbound aggregate AGI gap and no metro rent growth.

Updated 2026-07-31 · evidence current to the releases listed below.

Washington, DC presents a mixed demand screen. IRS movement counts were modestly positive, but outbound aggregate AGI exceeded inbound AGI, employment declined 2.3% year over year and metro asking rents were flat. The current figures support an expense-sensitive, current-income screen more than a thesis based on accelerating demand.

The counter-signals are positive net migration and District of Columbia FHFA appreciation of 0.4% over one year and 12.6% over five years. Coverage is limited to one metro and one county-equivalent, so the reported medians and percentile endpoints do not reveal neighborhood dispersion. The packet also cannot establish property-level occupancy, achievable rent, operating costs, insurance or physical exposure.

01

1,673 net inbound movers alongside a 2.3% employment decline and a $31,154 outbound aggregate AGI gap → do not use migration counts alone as confirmation of tenant demand

02

Flat metro rent growth versus a 0.3% home-value decline → screen the opportunity on current income rather than rent acceleration

03

A 58.5% renter share alongside 46.6% of renters carrying a 30%-plus rent burden → a broad renter base coexists with limited evidence of room for higher rents

04

A 53-day listing period and 17.6% price-reduction share → treat acquisition pricing and resale liquidity as active diligence items

05

FHFA appreciation of 0.4% over one year and 12.6% over five years versus a 2.3% Zillow county decline → reconcile source methodology and comparable properties before adopting an appreciation assumption

01
Employment and household movement

Positive mover counts lack confirmation from jobs and mover income

IRS records show 32,848 inbound moves and 31,175 outbound moves, leaving a net inflow of 1,673, or 2.5 per 1,000 residents. The income flow points the other way: reported inbound aggregate AGI was $86,003 versus $117,157 outbound, a negative gap of $31,154.

Washington, DC employment also declined 2.3% year over year. Because the migration and employment series cover different periods, they should not be treated as one synchronized trend. Together, however, they show that positive mover counts alone do not establish strengthening tenant demand or income capacity.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — population · BLS CES — payroll employment · BLS LAUS — resident employment · IRS SOI — county migration and mover income

02
Price and rent momentum

Rents are holding up better than values, but only marginally

Washington, DC's measured metro home value was $584,684, down 0.3% year over year, while the $2,448 asking rent was unchanged. That leaves rent growth 0.3 percentage points above price growth, a small separation rather than broad rent momentum.

The implied gross yield was 5.0%. This is a before-expense measure and does not account for vacancy, maintenance, management, financing, taxes or insurance. Flat asking rents also do not establish the rent achievable for a specific unit.

Evidence: Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

03
Entry cost and affordability

A 5.0% gross yield comes with a 4.62 price-to-income ratio

At a measured price of $584,684 and monthly rent of $2,448, Washington, DC produced a 5.0% gross yield. Median household income was $126,684, the price-to-income ratio was 4.62 and the market rent-to-income measure was 23.2%.

The asking rent was 1.09 times the $2,246 HUD two-bedroom Fair Market Rent. That comparison helps frame rent positioning, but HUD's standard and Zillow's market asking rent are different measures. Neither establishes tenant qualification, unit-level affordability or a property's collectible rent.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — household income · HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard · Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

04
Housing stock and tenant conditions

A renter-majority market still carries 10.1% measured vacancy

Renters occupied 58.5% of District of Columbia housing, while the ACS vacancy rate was 10.1%. Large multifamily buildings represented 42.0% of the stock and single-family homes 32.7%, indicating that rental screening spans materially different property formats.

Among renters, 46.6% spent at least 30% of income on rent, and the median year built was 1958. The burden measure limits how confidently higher rents can be assumed, while the stock age makes property condition an important unmeasured variable. ACS vacancy is a broad housing measure, not the stabilized vacancy rate of an investment property.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock

05
County market dispersion

Soft current measures sit beside positive FHFA appreciation

District of Columbia county-level Zillow measures show prices down 2.3% and rents down 1.1% year over year, with a 5.2% gross yield. FHFA provides a genuine counter-signal: its index rose 0.4% over one year and 12.6% over five years.

Realtor.com recorded 2,886 active listings, a 53-day median marketing period, price reductions on 17.6% of listings and a 30.3% pending ratio. These measures make acquisition pricing and exit liquidity relevant screening questions. The Zillow, FHFA and listing series use different methods and periods, so their divergence does not establish a single definitive price trajectory.

Evidence: FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation · Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory · Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents

06
Physical risk and property tax

The tax burden is measurable, while hazard screening remains coarse

District of Columbia had a measured effective property-tax rate of 0.59% and a median tax bill of $4,312. Those figures can anchor an initial carrying-cost screen, but they do not establish the bill for a particular property.

The reported FEMA climate loss ratio was 0.05%, and inland flood was the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label for the one measured area. That label is an area-level classification, not evidence that every parcel has inland-flood exposure. Parcel elevation, building characteristics, insurance pricing and mitigation costs are absent.

Evidence: FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios · Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax

Evidence selected for District of Columbia

The ranges behind the analysis

Each row keeps its own unit and shows the measured 10th percentile, median and 90th percentile. A single-value row is labelled directly.

Employment and household movementDo jobs, household movement and mover income point in the same direction?
10th pct.median90th pct.Job change-2.3%-2.3%-2.3%Net migration / 1k2.5Net household movement1,673
Price and rent momentumAre home values and asking rents moving together or separating?
10th pct.median90th pct.Home-value change-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%Asking-rent change0.0%0.0%0.0%Rent minus price0.3%
Entry cost and affordabilityHow far do local prices, rents, incomes and HUD rent standards stretch?
10th pct.median90th pct.Gross yield5.0%5.0%5.0%Price / income4.6×4.6×4.6×Rent / income23.2%23.2%23.2%Home value$585K$585K$585K
Shape of the state

Distribution before conclusion

A statewide median can hide a wide spread. These SVG charts render at build time and carry no chart library or browser-side data request.

Metro score distribution1 scored metros · median 29.0
00–19120–39040–59060–79080–100
County evidence coverageEvery gap stays visible as missing—not estimated
100%1/1Rent100%1/1Climate100%1/1Migration
Highest measured metro gross yieldsscreening metric only · before expenses and financing
Washington5.0%
Metro leaderboard

Markets touching District of Columbia

Multi-state CBSAs appear in every member state. Score is still a metro score; no value is reweighted into a statewide ranking.

#MetroScorePriceRentYieldJobs
1Washington, DC29$585k$2,4485.0%▼ 2.3%
Below the metro line

Largest counties in District of Columbia

County figures join on the five-digit FIPS code. The table uses measured local values and prints “n/a” wherever a publisher has no record.

CountyPopulationPriceRentYieldHazard
District of Columbia, DC681,294$579k$2,5325.2%inland flooding
County yield sample1/1counties have the rent needed to compute yield
Statewide net migration+1,673IRS tax-return households summed across counties
Median investor share9.0%among counties with HMDA purchase records
Sources used in this analysis

Measured releases, not a global source count

Only sources supporting the selected evidence modules are listed here.

Bear case

What can break the thesis

  1. Only one metro and one county-equivalent are measured, so identical percentile endpoints do not reveal neighborhood or property-type dispersion.
  2. The 5.0% metro and 5.2% county yields are gross; operating expenses, financing, capital work and property-level vacancy could materially change net returns.
  3. Zillow and FHFA price signals differ in direction, and their methods and periods do not support treating either measure as a definitive current trajectory.
  4. ACS vacancy and renter-burden figures describe broad housing conditions, not the occupancy, tenant income or collections of a specific asset.
  5. The inland-flood leading-hazard label and county-level loss ratio cannot establish parcel exposure, insurance availability or asset-specific mitigation costs.
Investor questions

Before underwriting a property

Does positive migration establish strengthening rental demand?

No. The measured net inflow was 1,673, but employment declined 2.3% and outbound aggregate AGI exceeded inbound AGI by $31,154. The series also cover different periods, so they provide a mixed screen rather than a unified demand trend.

What does the measured entry math look like?

Washington, DC showed a $584,684 metro home value, $2,448 monthly asking rent and 5.0% gross yield. The price-to-income ratio was 4.62, and the asking rent equaled 1.09 times the HUD two-bedroom Fair Market Rent.

How much evidence supports rent increases?

Little in the current packet. Metro asking-rent growth was 0.0%, county rent growth was negative 1.1% and 46.6% of renters were already spending at least 30% of income on rent. These figures do not determine unit-level pricing power.

Do current listings indicate an easy resale market?

The county-equivalent recorded 53 median days on market, 17.6% of listings with price reductions and a 30.3% pending ratio. Those measures warrant liquidity screening, but they do not provide transaction-level timing for a specific property.

Can the FEMA figures determine whether a property faces flood risk?

No. Inland flood is the leading-hazard label for the measured area, and the climate loss ratio was 0.05%. Both are area-level measures and cannot establish parcel exposure, insurance cost or required mitigation.