At the immediate snapshot, the five-digit label 58801 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match for Williston, North Dakota. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $1,256, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The index is down 2.9% on the exact same-month one-year comparison, even after annualized same-month gains of 6.2% over three years and 8.5% over five years. Thus, the latest decline breaks from the longer positive path rather than confirming it. These readings describe asking-rent index behavior, not a lease quote, renter household spending, or a forecast.
The history is complete enough to reveal instability rather than a clean trend. Zillow history has 100% coverage: 68 observations yield 67 consecutive monthly returns through the stated endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.6%, and the maximum drawdown is -4.3%, fitting the high-variability classification. This makes the current index useful as a marker but gives less confidence to treating one month as a stable run rate; a small current move needs the longer sequence beside it. Transparent discovery scores are 40.5 for momentum, 20.1 for stability, and 32.3 balanced. Their national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,729, 2,320, and 2,340 respectively, where a lower rank is higher. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
The resale record supplies an opposing market signal, but it must stay in the for-sale universe. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions, reports a $399,810 median sold price, 12.6% year-over-year price change, 110 homes sold, and a 24-day median marketing time. It also records 86 homes of inventory and 2.4 months of supply. The average sale reached 99.7% of list price and 15.0% of sales closed above list. Read strictly as for-sale liquidity and pricing, this evidence challenges the current asking-rent retreat and complements the longer rent appreciation; the reported supply level and near-list execution are direct resale conditions, not rental transactions. The annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.77%, only a cross-source screening ratio—not cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Bedroom figures should not be mistaken for measured rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,094 for a studio, $1,122 for one bedroom, $1,256 for two, $1,657 for three, and $1,833 for four. They are calculations, not observed bedroom rents. HUD’s FY2026 local FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent series; its two-bedroom standard is $1,196. The common two-bedroom result does not turn the index into a two-bedroom measurement: it simply follows the normalization point used in the calculation. The ZIP index is 5.0% above the two-bedroom HUD standard, but the comparison does not measure tenant payments, utilities, concessions, or program eligibility.
Another source gap matters more than a small monthly change. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes gives median gross rent of $1,129, and gross rent includes selected utilities. It is not Zillow’s asking-rent index and cannot be read as a contemporaneous asking quote; however, the lower survey median frames the index against a distinct occupied-home universe. For a mechanical 30% screen, the current monthly index implies $50,240 of annual income. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA median household income is $84,702, with asking rent equal to 17.8% of that income on this broad comparison. ACS also estimates 29.0% of renter households are burdened at or above the same threshold, an area-level condition that cannot prove the burden of any particular household or unit.
Large reported vacancy is relevant but not proof of a lease opportunity. The ACS ZCTA has 17,290 housing units, of which 12,983 are occupied and 4,307 are vacant, a 24.9% total-housing vacancy rate. Renters occupy 49.7% of occupied homes, and 2,224 units are classified vacant for rent; the remaining vacant universe can include categories other than an immediately rentable listing. The housing stock spans single-family and large-multifamily structures, so the aggregate figure does not identify the unit type behind the Zillow index. Census sampling, classification, and the five-year collection window also limit precision. Neither total vacancy nor the for-rent count establishes an individual unit’s availability, condition, effective price, or fit with a household.
For wider context only, the City of Williston scope has an approximately $1,256 Zillow rent index, the Williams County scope is $1,256, and the Williston, ND metro scope is $1,256. These city, county, and metro figures are context rather than substitutes for the ZIP index or the matched ZCTA survey. The city context has a higher renter share and slightly lower total housing vacancy than the ZCTA; the county context has a lower renter share and higher vacancy. The metro’s apartment vacancy is a distinct apartment-market measure, not the ZCTA’s total-housing vacancy, and should not be merged with it. The broad rent-index alignment therefore does not resolve the mismatch between asking rent, occupied-home gross rent, HUD standards, or direct ZIP resale behavior.
Decision use comes from reconciling the contradictory signals rather than translating any one of them into property economics. Confirm that an address uses the intended delivery ZIP and determine whether the relevant Census ZCTA match is appropriate. For a candidate rental, verify the live advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities included, fees, concessions, lease term, availability date, square footage, condition, and any occupancy restrictions; then compare it with like listings rather than the modelled ladder alone. For a sale comparison, inspect property type, condition, transaction timing, and actual list-to-sale details, because Redfin’s aggregation does not supply rental comps or operating costs. Treat ACS margins of error and survey timing, HUD program standards, and ZORI’s blended composition as limits. Which address-level rent quote and resale comparables remain after those checks?