Counties / Missouri / Adair County

Adair County, MO

FIPS 29001 · population 25,301 · part of Kirksville, MO

$198k
Zillow home value · 2026-06
The numbers

What this county costs and earns

Everything here joins on the county FIPS code, so each figure comes from the agency that publishes it with no name matching in between.

Zillow home value
$198k
▲ 5.4% year over year
Zillow ZHVI · direct
Median asking rent
$716
▼ 0.7% year over year
Zillow ZORI · direct
Gross yield
4.3%
annual rent ÷ price, before costs
derived: rent × 12 ÷ price ✓
HUD 2-bed standard
$888
market rent is 0.81x the standard
HUD Fair Market Rent · direct
Independent price check

Do two methods point the same way?

Zillow estimates a current home value. FHFA tracks repeat mortgage transactions. Their growth rates should be read side by side, not averaged.

Both annual signals move in the same direction
FHFA five-year cumulative+45.1%not annualized · through 2025
0%ZILLOW ZHVI2026-06+5.4%FHFA HPI2025+5.8%
Annual changes use different methods and may use different periods. The comparison checks direction and magnitude; it does not create a blended estimate. Zillow county ZHVI pulled 2026-07-26; FHFA annual county HPI pulled 2026-07-28.
Owner-reported value$166k
Surveyed gross rent$772
Rent burden 30%+40.4%
Median year built1973
Housing composition

Who occupies the stock—and what it is

ACS 2024 5-year
19.9%vacant
11,389estimated housing units
Occupied tenure39.0% renter
owner 61.0%renter 39.0%
Structure mix69.9% single-family
Single-family 69.9%20+ units 2.7%Mobile home 6.6%Other 20.8%
ACS estimates describe the standing housing stock and occupied tenure. They do not measure current listings, transaction prices or asking rents.

Survey source: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30. These values describe different housing universes and are not combined into gross yield.

Annual average covered jobs9,337▼ 3.3% from the prior annual release
Covered establishments844annual average reporting locations
Average weekly wage$883▲ 2.0% from the prior annual release
Largest private supersectorEducation and health services31.6% of disclosed private covered jobs
Local labor base

Jobs, pay and private-sector concentration

2025
0%COVERED JOBS−3.3%WEEKLY WAGE+2.0%Education and health services31.6%
Annual QCEW counts cover jobs located at reporting establishments. The industry share uses disclosed private covered employment; it is not a resident-employment measure or a forecast.

Workplace source: BLS QCEW — county employment and wages · annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 · pulled 2026-07-31. QCEW counts covered jobs located in the county, not employed residents or the metro score’s CES/LAUS series.

County brief

What the local evidence says

01Decision frame

Adair County’s underwriting tension is a rising county home-value measure alongside a slightly falling measured asking-rent measure, leaving little demonstrated income cushion. Cash-flow-focused buyers and owners relying on rent growth warrant caution, while operators able to verify property-level expenses should investigate the gap. Zillow reports a $197,650 median home value, up 5.38%, and $716 median monthly asking rent, down 0.73%. The reported 4.35% gross yield is before costs, so it is not a net-return conclusion.

02Housing economics

Measured asking rent is distinct from HUD’s $888 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent: FMR is a payment standard, not evidence that units ask or achieve that amount. The asking-rent figure equals 80.6% of FMR. FHFA’s annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 5.76%; it corroborates positive price direction but is neither a home value nor a rate to combine with Zillow because method and observation timing differ. The 0.77% effective property-tax rate adds a carrying-cost input, but subject assessment and tax bill are not published.

03Demand & competition

Realtor.com’s MLS market evidence points to visible supply and seller concessions rather than proven transaction demand: active listings increased 5%, and 12.61% of listings had price reductions. These are asking-market measures, not closed-sale prices. Non-occupants accounted for 30 of 220 purchase mortgages, a measurable buyer-competition channel but not a measure of all buyers. Tax-return migration shows net outflow; moving-out households averaged $5,627 more income than moving-in households. QCEW annual covered workplace employment fell 3.3%; it is not resident employment or unemployment, and education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.

04Risk & next checks

Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled expected annual building-value loss ratio is 0.13%; it is not a claim history or a parcel-level exposure finding. Missing property-level rent comparables, vacancy and lease data, insurance and operating-cost quotes, tax assessment, flood-zone information, and closed-sale comparables prevent a reliable net-cash-flow, valuation, or insurability conclusion. County evidence can screen the tension, but these checks must resolve the subject asset.

Cities & communities

Where people live within Adair County

Census-recognized incorporated places and CDPs that intersect this county. The list does not pretend to include every neighborhood or informal community.

Population scale

Largest Census places

ACS 2024 5-year
Kirksville city17.6KNovinger city423Greentop city*331Brashear city182Millard village106Connelsville CDP70Gibbs village62
Bars use total place population, not a county-share estimate. An asterisk marks a place that crosses a county line.
Official directory

7 Census places

Population
  1. 01
    Kirksville cityIncorporated place
    17,563
  2. 02
    Novinger cityIncorporated place
    423
  3. 03
    Greentop cityIncorporated place · spans 2 counties
    331
  4. 04
    Brashear cityIncorporated place
    182
  5. 05
    Millard villageIncorporated place
    106
  6. 06
    Connelsville CDPCensus-designated place
    70
  7. 07
    Gibbs villageIncorporated place
    62

Population is the total place-wide ACS estimate, not an allocated county share. A place crossing a county line is labelled explicitly. Source: Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30.

Risk, demand and competition

The three things a price does not tell you

01
Risk & carrying costFEMA NRI + Census ACS
Dominant hazardinland flooding

0.127% of building value expected lost per year

Effective property tax0.77%

$1,276 median annual bill

02
DemandIRS SOI household flows
Net migration-62

662 in · 724 out

Arriving vs leaving income−$5,627

$40,749 arriving · $46,376 leaving

03
CompetitionHMDA financed purchases
Purchases by investors13.6%

30 of 220 mortgages

investorother financed
Current listing pressure

What sellers and visible supply are doing

Realtor.com® Economic Research · county inventory 2026-06 · pulled 2026-07-28
Active listings105▲ 5.0% year over year
Median days on market62▼ 17.6% year over year
Listings price-reduced12.6%seller-concession signal
Median listing pricen/a▼ 6.0% year over year

Listing price is an asking price, not a closed sale. Quality-flagged county rows are withheld instead of displayed.

Same metro

The other counties in Kirksville, MO

A metro is an average of these. Which side of a county line a property sits on can change the tax bill, the hazard profile and the tenant pool.

CountyPopulationPriceRentYieldHazard
Adair County25,301$198k$7164.3%inland flooding
Schuyler County4,038$181kn/an/ainland flooding
Bear case

What can break the county thesis

  1. Property-level flood exposure or insurance costs could exceed the county-level modeled climate-loss signal.
  2. Neighborhood rent, vacancy, tax, and operating costs could make the county gross-yield figure inapplicable to a specific asset.
  3. MLS listing conditions may not translate into closed-sale values, financing availability, or lease demand.
Underwriting questions

Before pricing a property

Is HUD Fair Market Rent the county’s market-rent estimate?

No. The record identifies HUD two-bedroom FMR as a payment standard; the market-rent measure is median monthly asking rent.

What labor-market series is available?

QCEW provides annual average covered jobs at workplaces in the county, not resident employment, unemployment, or a forecast.

What is the principal climate issue identified in the record?

Inland flood is the dominant hazard, while the loss ratio is a modeled county-level building-value measure rather than property-specific claim evidence.