Alachua County, FL

Alachua County’s underwriting tension is a negative county home-value reading alongside rising measured asking rent and a published yield, while the listing market shows concessions. It merits investigation by buyers able to validate property-level rent and flood exposure; it warrants caution for buyers assuming a single price series proves a trend. In Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, value fell 1.27% year over year, median asking rent was $1,675 per month, up 1.47%, and reported gross yield was 6.53% before costs.

That rent is measured market asking rent, not a subsidy benchmark. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,493 per month is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent and must not be substituted into yield. The reported gross yield therefore rests on market rent, but it is pre-cost: the effective property-tax rate is 0.96%. Insurance, financing, repairs, vacancy, utilities, and property-level assessed value are not published, preventing a net-yield or payment-carry conclusion.

Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing evidence points to a negotiated rather than demonstrably demand-led market: median listing price was down 6.38% year over year, median marketing time was 68 days, and 21.05% of listings had cuts. These are asking-price, visible-supply, and seller-concession measures—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was negative 454 households, and entrants had lower average income than leavers. Investor mortgage participation was 9% of purchases, a secondary competition indicator rather than evidence of total cash-buyer activity.

FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 2.59% annually, challenging Zillow’s later decline rather than providing a dollar value or a rate to average with Zillow. QCEW identifies Education and health services as the largest disclosed private supersector; it records covered jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment or an outlook. Inland flood is dominant, and modeled climate loss equals 0.17% of building value per year. Missing property-level flood zone, insurance quotes, condition, lease terms, sale comps, and vacancy prevent a defensible net-income, replacement-cost, or exit-price conclusion.