Boise County presents a pricing-validation problem rather than a clear momentum case: investors relying on appreciation or leverage should investigate, and cash-flow underwriting warrants caution. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value is $490,130, up 1.82% year over year. In contrast, FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI fell 6.88% annually. These are different vintages and methods: the HPI is an index, not a home value, so the rates cannot be combined or read as a closed-sale trend.
Cash flow cannot be underwritten from the supplied record because market asking rent is not published; therefore gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,655 is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent and cannot fill that gap. Against the reported value, the 0.34% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input, but parcel assessments, bills and exemptions require verification. Missing rent also prevents a supported comparison of income against price and recurring ownership costs.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS view reports 124 active listings; median listing price and visible supply both declined year over year. Median marketing time was 61 days, and 22.02% of listings had a price reduction; the pending-to-active ratio was 36.03%. These are asking-price, supply, marketing-time and seller-concession evidence, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. QCEW’s 2025 annual data show covered jobs at county workplaces and wages increased, with Leisure and hospitality the largest disclosed private supersector. That is workplace evidence, not resident employment, unemployment or a housing-demand forecast.
Tax-return migration was negative because more returns moved out than in, while incoming movers reported higher average AGI than outgoing movers. The mixed volume-and-income signal needs local renter and owner-occupier validation. Investor participation was 6.92% of 130 purchases, so non-owner buyers were present but not dominant in the observed purchase count. Wildfire is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.70%; it is not an insurance premium or realized loss. Missing market rent, closed-sale comparables, vacancy, insurance quotes, parcel-specific taxes and hazard exposure prevents a supported yield, resale or full carrying-cost conclusion.