County-level tension: appreciation evidence is positive, but the income case is unpriced. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 5.74% in its annual observation and shows a separate 61.59% cumulative change; neither is a home value. Realtor.com’s median MLS listing price rose 2.93% in its supplied inventory period, but that observation is a different vintage and method, and the listing-price level is not published. Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. Investors who can verify rents and flood costs should investigate; income-first buyers should be cautious. The absent Zillow county series prevents a fuller home-value check.
ACS gives an owner-reported median value of $323,700 and surveyed gross rent of $1,411, but these describe separate survey populations; neither is current asking or transaction evidence, and they must not be combined into yield. HUD’s supplied FMR is $1,865, a payment standard rather than market rent. The effective property-tax rate is 1.99%, with median annual tax of $6,454. Carrying costs are therefore visible, while rent coverage and gross yield remain untested; FMR does not cure the missing market-rent evidence.
QCEW records 531,903 annual average covered jobs in the county, up 1.76%. Those are workplace jobs, not resident employment, unemployment, a forecast, or the metro series. Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector at 22.94% of private covered jobs, so the rest of the economy needs checking. Net migration was -1,621, alongside a -$8,875 average AGI gap between incoming and outgoing movers; that is a demand caution, not a causal explanation. Investor mortgages were 757 of 10,032 purchases, or 7.55%: participation is meaningful but minority. Realtor.com shows 878 active listings and a pending-to-active ratio of 167.37%. Price-reduced listings add seller-concession context, but listing evidence does not prove closed-sale demand.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard; the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.14% of building value per year, not a property-level loss estimate or insurance quote. Verify flood zone, elevation, claims, coverage, deductibles, and replacement assumptions. Missing property-level rent, operating expenses, capex, insurance, closed-sale comps, and a current asking-price level prevent a cash-flow, exit-price, or flood-adjusted return conclusion. The next screen is verification, not extrapolation from county aggregates.