Cole County has a price-growth versus income-return tension: investigators can test rent durability, while buyers needing a broad cost cushion should be cautious. Zillow’s 2026-06 county measure puts median home value at $291,277, up 8.16%, and median asking market rent at $1,058 monthly, up 9.26%. The supplied gross yield is 4.36% before costs, based on market rent and price; it is not a forecast or closed-sale evidence.
Keep market rent separate from HUD FMR. The two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot recalculate yield. This yield is gross, before tax, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing and flood costs. The effective property-tax rate is 0.77%. Insurance, operating expenses and parcel assessments are not published, preventing a net-yield conclusion.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence is softer than the county price measure alone: median listing price fell 5%, active listings rose 39.44%, marketing time was 37 days, 13.79% had reductions, and the pending-to-active ratio was 78.88%. These are asking-price, visible-supply, marketing-time and concession measures, not closed sales or proof of demand alone. Investor purchase mortgages were 15.67% of 1,040 total purchases, indicating competition but not their bids or hold periods. Net migration was negative 40 tax-return households, while outbound movers’ average AGI was $2,191 higher; this tempers a broad-demand assumption.
Risk review keeps the thesis conditional. In 2025, FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose, directionally consistent with Zillow, but is an index—not a home value—and the vintage and method differ, so the changes cannot be averaged. QCEW annual covered workplace employment rose 0.37%; it is not resident employment or unemployment. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Inland flood is dominant; modeled climate loss cannot replace parcel flood-zone, elevation, deductible, insurance-availability and repair-cost review. Missing unit-level lease comps, closing prices, vacancy, delinquency, and parcel insurance and tax assessments prevent net-cash-flow and resale-liquidity conclusions.