Contra Costa County, CA

Contra Costa County poses a cautious income-underwriting case: Zillow’s 2026-06 county reading has home value down 2.51% year over year while median asking rent rose 3.01%, for a supplied 4.42% gross yield before costs. This favors investors able to verify property-level rent and expenses; buyers depending on appreciation or a wide carrying-cost cushion should be cautious. The decision tension is rent growth beside softer values, not a price forecast.

Published median asking rent is $2,901 per month, a measured market-rent figure that supports the stated gross-yield calculation but not achievable unit rent, vacancy, or net income. The effective property-tax rate is 0.83%, requiring parcel-level assessment and bill review. The supplied HUD FMR is a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate; it cannot validate rent, yield, or tenant demand.

Realtor.com MLS evidence shows reduced visible supply, nearly flat median asking prices, shorter marketing time, and price-reduction concessions. These are listing conditions, not closed-sale pricing or proof of demand. Tax-return migration was negative by 3,856 households, though incoming households reported average income $2,143 higher than outgoing households: mixed demand evidence, not a forecast. Investors made 637 of 9,219 purchases, or 6.91%, showing participation, not control of competition. Separate QCEW workplace data show rising covered employment and wages; Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the entire economy.

FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI fell 0.01% annually but was up 30.47% cumulatively over five years. It is an index, not a dollar value, and cannot be averaged with Zillow because their method and vintage differ. Inland flood is dominant; modeled annual climate loss is 0.37% of building value. Parcel flood exposure, insurance, mitigation, replacement cost, submarket closed comps, leases, expenses, vacancy, and financing are not published; without them, net yield, downside, and exit-price underwriting cannot be concluded.