Dane County warrants investigation for investors who can verify operating costs, but caution for buyers relying on appreciation or HUD benchmarks. Zillow’s county observation, labeled 2026-06, puts median home value at $476,735, up 2.32% year over year, while measured median asking rent is $1,682 per month. The supplied 4.23% gross yield is only a pre-cost screen.
Housing economics depend on the measured asking rent, not HUD’s two-bedroom Fair Market Rent, which is a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate. An effective property-tax rate of 1.63% and median annual tax of $6,420 narrow the pre-cost yield. Insurance, maintenance, vacancy, debt terms, and property-level assessments are not published, preventing a net-cash-flow conclusion.
Demand evidence is mixed rather than a clean confirmation of Zillow’s direction. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI for annual 2025 rose 4.12% year over year and 53.63% cumulatively over five years. It tracks repeat sales rather than a dollar home value and cannot be averaged with Zillow’s separately labeled change. Realtor.com’s MLS listing-market evidence shows median asking price down 1.97%, active listings up 15.93%, median marketing time of 41 days, and reductions on 14.26% of listings. These are visible-supply and seller-concession signals, not closed prices or proof of buyer demand alone.
Annual QCEW covered workplace employment increased 0.52%, while covered-worker wages also rose; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return migration was net positive, but incoming movers had lower average AGI than outgoing movers, limiting what inflow says about purchasing power. The record identifies 445 investor purchases among 6,302 total purchases, or 7.06%. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled expected annual climate loss of 0.08% of building value. Parcel flood-zone status, insurance quotes, operating histories, and property-specific rent comparables are not published, preventing property-level cash-flow and hazard-pricing conclusions.