Goliad County’s decision tension is a positive Zillow value move against a falling FHFA index, with an unverified income case. Buyers relying on recent appreciation should investigate rather than treat the county as a simple growth case. Zillow’s county median home value was $282,576 in 2026-06, up 3.67% year over year; FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI fell 13.86% in its 2025 annual observation. The measures have different vintages and methods and cannot be averaged into a growth rate.
No county market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,442 per month, but it is a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 0.94%, and median annual property tax is $1,812; both belong in a carrying-cost review, alongside unreported insurance, assessment practice, and property-specific condition. The record does not establish whether rent covers taxes and other ownership costs.
Tax-return migration shows 199 moving households in and 187 out, a net gain of 12; inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $3,894. That is a narrow county-level flow signal, not proof of tenant or buyer demand. Investor purchase mortgages were 3.92% of purchases, or 2 of 51, indicating limited observed non-owner mortgage participation rather than a count of cash buyers or all investor acquisitions. QCEW reports annual covered jobs at county workplaces rising, with Construction the largest disclosed private supersector; it does not measure resident employment. Realtor.com listing-price, active-listing, marketing-time, and price-reduction data are not published here, preventing a read on visible supply, seller concessions, or MLS market pace.
Hurricane is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.21%. This modeled ratio is not an insurance quote or a property-specific damage estimate, but it raises the importance of deductibles, coverage availability, elevation, and repair history. Before underwriting, obtain market-rent evidence to calculate yield, transaction comps to validate value, MLS metrics to test liquidity, and insurance and tax-bill details to test all-in carrying costs. County-level evidence cannot resolve parcel-level exposure or lease performance.