Victoria, TX
Victoria merits investigation by yield-focused buyers who can underwrite wind exposure and accept muted demand signals; buyers unwilling to absorb hurricane-wind and weak migration risk should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Victoria merits investigation by yield-focused buyers who can underwrite wind exposure and accept muted demand signals; buyers unwilling to absorb hurricane-wind and weak migration risk should avoid it. The $224,286 median value and $1,212 median asking rent indicate a 6.48% gross yield, while rent rose 2.32% and values rose 0.74%.
Opportunity lies in affordability and restrained permitting: 70 permits were issued and price-to-income is 3.19. Yet listings are not tight: months of supply is 4.4, median market time is 58 days, and 28.95% of listings had price drops. This combination favors selective offers rather than assuming scarcity.
Risk sits in demand and property exposure. Employment grew only 0.38%, tax filings show net migration of -12 households, and the dominant hazard is hurricane wind. Rent growth exceeds value growth, but weak migration and climate losses mean the headline yield should be tested against vacancy, insurance, and repair costs, which are not published.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
How far above median asking rent is the published fair-market rent?
Is household migration positive?
What insurance premium or deductible should be underwritten for hurricane wind?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Victoria as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 63 | 30% | 18.90 |
| Rent trend | 33 | 25% | 8.25 |
| Affordability | 78 | 15% | 11.70 |
| Supply pressure | 68 | 15% | 10.20 |
| Climate risk | 18 | 15% | 2.70 |
| Published score | 52 | ||
Job: CES employment grew 0.38% -> labor-market movement is positive but offers little demand reassurance.
Rent: Median asking rent rose 2.32%, but the rent component scored 33 -> recent growth does not overcome a weak overall rent signal.
Affordability: Rent equals 20.7% of median income and price-to-income is 3.19 -> local incomes appear able to support current rents and values.
Supply: Permits totaled 70, inventory was 4.4 months, and 28.95% of listings had price drops -> construction pressure appears contained, yet buyers have room to negotiate.
Climate: The annual climate loss ratio is 0.2225% and hurricane wind is the dominant hazard -> physical-risk and insurance terms require close review.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- The dominant hurricane-wind hazard and 0.2225% annual climate loss ratio could leave net returns below the gross yield.
- Net migration was -12 households, and average income was lower for movers in than movers out; both are weak demand signals.
- Median market time was 58 days and 28.95% of listings had price drops, indicating potential resale and pricing difficulty.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Victoria
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria, TX (Target) | 52 | $224k | $1,212 | 6.5% | ▲ 0.4% |
| San Angelo, TX | 64 | $234k | $1,306 | 6.7% | ▲ 0.3% |
| Owensboro, KY | 61 | $216k | $1,189 | 6.6% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Grand Island, NE | 37 | $261k | $1,337 | 6.2% | ▼ 0.3% |
| Cullman, AL | 43 | $264k | $1,389 | 6.3% | ▼ 0.1% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |