Irion County presents a declining-price, unproven rental thesis: Zillow’s county median home value was $261,954 in 2026-06, down 6.71% year over year, but measured market rent is not published. Without market rent, gross yield cannot be computed, and HUD’s figure cannot fill that gap. Investigate lease-level rents, vacancy, and resale liquidity before treating the decline as an opportunity; this county record is not representative of the San Angelo metro.
Housing carrying costs are partly visible, not fully underwritten. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,339 per month, a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate. The effective property-tax rate is 0.70%; insurance, repairs, utilities, and financing are not supplied. QCEW’s 2025 annual measure shows 794 covered jobs located in the county, up 0.76%, while average weekly wage was $1,802, down 3.79%. Natural resources and mining, the largest disclosed private supersector, accounts for 61.33% of private covered jobs. That concentration and falling covered-worker pay make rent support less clear; QCEW is workplace employment, not resident employment or unemployment.
Demand evidence points away from easy absorption. Tax-return households recorded net migration of -19; average AGI was $74,763 for incoming households versus $155,193 for outgoing households, an $80,430 gap calculated from the supplied figures. This is net outflow alongside higher average income among out-movers, without proving why households moved. Purchase records show 11 total purchases and a 0% investor share: no observed non-occupant participation, but too few transactions to establish buyer demand or competition. The Realtor.com 2026-06 MLS record supplies no active-supply, marketing-time, price-reduction, or pending metrics.
Risk underwriting is incomplete. The modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.23% of building value per year, with wildfire the dominant hazard; insurance premiums, deductibles, claims history, and parcel-level exposure are absent. FHFA’s annual repeat-transaction HPI observation is not published, so Zillow’s direction cannot be checked against a separate appreciation index. Next checks are actual market rent, closed-sale comparables, property-level tax and insurance quotes, and local leasing evidence. Until then, the record supports caution, not a gross-yield or appreciation conclusion.