Jefferson County’s decision tension is a modest stated gross yield against value appreciation and a limited visible listing pool. Investors requiring durable current income should be cautious; buyers able to verify property-level costs and rents should investigate. Zillow county observations labeled 2026-06 show a $476,605 median home value and $1,372 median monthly asking rent, with the supplied 3.45% gross yield before costs. This is measured asking-rent evidence, not proof of achieved rent or net return.
The 0.45% effective property-tax rate is a direct carrying cost against that yield. HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of county asking rent; it cannot replace Zillow rent or create a yield calculation. Zillow median value rose 2.49% in its county measure. FHFA’s separate 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 6.38%. Both indicate an upward direction, but their different vintages and methods prohibit averaging them into one appreciation rate.
QCEW’s 2025 annual measure reports covered employment at county workplaces, not resident employment; it declined 13.80%. Trade, transportation, and utilities is its largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence shows 90 active listings, down 25.31%, and 9.19% of listings price-reduced. These are visible-supply and seller-concession measures—not closed-sale prices or standalone proof of buyer demand.
Tax-return migration was net 114 households, while average AGI of moving-in households exceeded that of moving-out households by $19,283. That pairing indicates positive net flow with higher reported inbound income, but does not measure tenant demand. Of 350 total purchases, investors represented 2.57%, limiting evidence that non-occupant buyers dominate competition. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual climate loss equals 0.14% of building value; this is modeled risk, not a parcel finding. Vacancy, operating expenses, insurance, debt terms, closed-sale comparables, and parcel flood data are not published, preventing a net-cash-flow or property-specific resilience conclusion.