Lee County’s decision tension is a 7.06% pre-cost gross yield against evidence that visible resale marketing has loosened and covered workplace employment has contracted. Investors who can validate property-level flood exposure, insurance and leasing costs merit further review; buyers relying on appreciation or quick resale should be cautious. Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation reports a $215,389 median home value and $1,268 median monthly asking rent. HUD’s $994 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent or a yield input.
Price and rent did not move in lockstep: Zillow’s value measure rose 5.95% year over year while asking rent rose 2.79%, placing the current yield case under pressure unless costs are controlled. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 5.73% over its annual measure, directionally consistent with Zillow but neither a home value nor the same vintage; the measures should not be averaged. The effective property-tax rate is 0.69%. Gross yield is before tax, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing and flood-related costs, so net yield cannot be established.
County workplace conditions are a counterweight: QCEW’s 2025 annual average lists 52,019 covered jobs, down 0.98%, rather than resident employment or unemployment. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing evidence shows expanding active supply, longer marketing times, and price reductions; it measures active asking-market conditions, not closed sales or buyer demand alone. Inbound and outbound tax-return movers were nearly balanced, with lower average AGI for inbound movers. Investors accounted for 11.06% of total purchase mortgages, participation rather than proof of competition for any asset.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss is 0.12%; it is a county-level expected-loss ratio, not a site loss, premium, or forecast. Missing flood-zone and elevation data plus insurance quotations prevent asset-level resilience and net-cash-flow underwriting. Missing closed-sale comparables, property condition, lease roll, vacancy, debt terms and repair estimates prevent a supported acquisition price or net yield. Those items require parcel and submarket review because county evidence cannot resolve neighborhood variation.