Tupelo, MS
Tupelo merits investigation by yield-focused buyers who can underwrite local employment and flood exposure; buyers dependent on strong demand growth should avoid treating it as a growth-led market.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Tupelo merits investigation by yield-focused buyers who can underwrite local employment and flood exposure; buyers dependent on strong demand growth should avoid treating it as a growth-led market. A $198,139 median home value, $1,241 median asking rent and 7.51% gross yield create a workable income screen, but they are market medians rather than a property-level return.
The tension is that rent rose 2.67% while LAUS employment fell 0.86%. Net migration was only 27 households, and incoming movers’ average income trailed outgoing movers by $2,398. That combination supports selective income underwriting, not broad assumptions about a deepening tenant base.
Supply conditions offer some opportunity: total permits were 172 and active inventory was 3.3 months, while 25.12% of listings had price cuts. The counterweight is inland-flood exposure, with a 0.126% annual climate loss ratio, so property-specific flood and insurance review belongs in the acquisition screen.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
What do the median price and rent imply before expenses?
How much negotiating evidence is visible?
Where are inbound households coming from?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Tupelo as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 27 | 30% | 8.10 |
| Rent trend | 38 | 25% | 9.50 |
| Affordability | 56 | 15% | 8.40 |
| Supply pressure | 76 | 15% | 11.40 |
| Climate risk | 60 | 15% | 9.00 |
| Published score | 46 | ||
LAUS employment fell 0.86% year over year -> job support for rental demand is currently weak.
Median asking rent rose 2.67% and gross yield is 7.51% -> income metrics warrant property-level expense testing despite modest rent growth.
Rent equals 23.57% of median income and home value equals 3.14 times income -> underwrite rents and exit pricing against local household capacity.
Permits totaled 172, or 1.3 per thousand, while months of supply was 3.3 -> check competing inventory at the submarket level rather than relying on metro totals.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.126% -> flood-zone, mitigation and insurance diligence is essential.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- LAUS employment is contracting, weakening a key demand signal.
- Near-flat net migration and lower average income among inbound than outbound movers provide little evidence of expanding demand.
- Inland-flood exposure could make otherwise attractive yields less compelling after property-specific insurance and mitigation costs.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Tupelo
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tupelo, MS (Target) | 46 | $198k | $1,241 | 7.5% | ▼ 0.9% |
| Rocky Mount, NC | 26 | $203k | $1,262 | 7.4% | ▼ 0.5% |
| Hattiesburg, MS | 49 | $221k | $1,388 | 7.5% | ▼ 0.4% |
| Valdosta, GA | 32 | $228k | $1,366 | 7.2% | ▼ 0.7% |
| New Bern, NC | 30 | $266k | $1,582 | 7.1% | ▼ 1.0% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |