Lycoming County presents a narrow rental case: a $242,127 median home value paired with $1,077 median asking rent produces a supplied 5.34% gross yield, not a net-return conclusion. The income case merits investigation; buyers requiring dependable cash flow should be cautious until property condition, vacancy, achievable rent, operating costs, and flood costs are verified.
Market rent rose 7.53%, while HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,195 and market rent is 90.10% of that payment standard. FMR is a payment standard, not asking-rent evidence, so it cannot replace the market-rent measure. The 1.31% effective tax rate belongs in carry analysis, but insurance, repairs, vacancy, utilities, management, and financing costs are absent. FHFA’s separate repeat-transaction index rose 2.83% in its annual observation; it is not a home value and should not be averaged with Zillow.
Demand evidence is mixed. Realtor.com shows active MLS supply down 20.89% and a 99.65% pending-to-active ratio: visible supply is tighter, but listing data are neither closed-sale prices nor proof of buyer demand. QCEW records 49,572 annual average covered jobs in the county, down 0.45%, while average weekly wage rose 2.53%. Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net tax-return migration was positive, but inbound movers’ average AGI was lower by $4,376. Check tenant depth and employer concentration.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. The modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.16%, but it does not identify a parcel’s flood zone, insurance premium, elevation, deductible, or claims. Investor purchases were 16.16% of total purchases, a competition signal, not proof of rental performance. Obtain closed-sale comparables, property-level rent and vacancy, full expenses, and parcel flood and condition data. Without them, this record cannot support net cash-flow or property-level hazard underwriting, or show that MLS tightness persists.