Madison County’s underwriting tension is a modest Zillow value gain against a declining FHFA repeat-transaction index, with no published market rent to test income coverage. Income-focused buyers and anyone relying on appreciation should be cautious; the record supports further property-level rent, expense and flood diligence rather than a county-wide return conclusion. The two price measures point in different directions, but neither establishes a sale price or a forecast.
In Zillow’s 2026-06 county series, median home value was $393,514, up 0.59% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI instead fell 5.13% year over year, although its supplied five-year cumulative change was 47.21%. These are distinct sources, vintages and methods, not a combined appreciation rate. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,835 per month is a payment standard, not market asking rent; because market rent is not published, gross yield cannot be computed. The effective property-tax rate is 0.48%, a carrying-cost input alongside property-specific assessments.
Tax-return migration shows net inflow of 146 households, and moving-in households’ average AGI exceeded moving-out households’ by $8,314. This is mover evidence, not proof of durable tenant demand. Investor mortgages accounted for 11 of 203 purchases, a 5.42% share, so the observed non-owner buyer presence was limited in this measure. QCEW reports 4,352 annual covered jobs at county workplaces; education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, at 27.61% of private covered jobs. These are not resident employment or unemployment measures.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.16% of building value; it is a modeled ratio, not a quoted insurance or repair cost. The record publishes no Realtor.com MLS listing price, active listings, days on market, price-reduced share or pending ratio, so visible supply, marketing time, seller concessions and listing-market competition cannot be assessed. Missing market rent, vacancy, operating expenses, insurance, property condition and closed-sale evidence prevents a property-level cash-flow, affordability or resale underwriting conclusion.