Massac County presents a split underwriting case: the Zillow value measure is rising while the visible MLS listing market is loosening. Buyers whose thesis requires rent coverage or a prompt resale should be cautious; investigators should test whether a specific property’s lease economics and earthquake insurance can support carrying costs. County evidence gives direction, not a property-level decision.
Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $112,844, up 6.11% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 2.68% on its annual measure. The index confirms positive price direction but is neither a dollar value nor the same vintage or method as Zillow, so the measures should not be blended. Market rent is not published, making gross yield uncomputable. HUD’s $969 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent. The 1.40% effective property-tax rate is a known carrying-cost input but cannot be matched to income.
In Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing market, median listing price was down 5.30% year over year, active inventory was up 70.69%, median marketing time was 76 days, and 22.97% of listings had price reductions. These are asking-price, visible-supply, marketing-time, and concession measures—not closed sales or independent proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration shows more moving households left than arrived, with higher average AGI among outmovers. QCEW’s annual covered workplace employment declined while covered-worker wages rose; leisure and hospitality is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Non-occupant purchase mortgages represented 2.53% of purchase mortgages, limiting observed investor competition in that measure.
Earthquake is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.31% of building value; it is a modeled county signal, not claim history or a property-loss estimate. Next checks are address-level seismic exposure and mitigation, earthquake-insurance availability, premium and deductible, actual market rent and vacancy, lease terms, condition, and closed-sale comps. Their absence prevents an income-coverage test, a gross-yield calculation, and reliable exit- or risk-adjusted carrying-cost underwriting.