Livingston County has declining value evidence against higher MLS asking prices and no published market rent for cash-flow testing. Cautious purchasers should investigate price formation and carrying costs rather than rely on either signal. Zillow’s county median home value was $147,841 in 2026-06, down 8.02% year over year. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI, a price-change index rather than a home value, fell 8.57% in 2025. These are separate observations and methods and should not be averaged or treated as one growth rate.
Gross yield cannot be computed because market rent is not published. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,158 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot substitute for it. The effective property-tax rate is 0.61%; the county median tax figure does not establish a parcel bill or assessment basis. At Realtor.com’s 2026-06 inventory vintage, median MLS listing price increased 32.04% year over year. This is asking-price evidence, not a closed-sale price, and conflicts directionally with Zillow without resolving value.
Buyer competition cannot be inferred from listings alone. Realtor.com reports reduced active supply, faster median marketing time, price reductions, and a pending-to-active ratio; these describe visible MLS supply, marketing time, seller concessions, and listing status, not completed sales or proof of demand. In its 2025 annual series, QCEW reports covered employment at county workplaces increased, while Construction, the largest disclosed private supersector, accounted for 26.7% of private covered jobs. Net migration was -11, and inbound movers’ average AGI was $208 below outbound movers’ average. The record reports 5 investor purchases among 73 total purchases, a 6.85% investor share rather than an ownership count.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss equals 0.26%; this county-level ratio is neither a property insurance quote nor a dollar-loss estimate. The thesis could fail if rent and vacancy conditions are weaker than unreported market-rent evidence, flood exposure or insurance differs by parcel, or MLS conditions do not convert to closing prices. Next checks are rent comps and leases, flood-zone and insurance records, parcel tax bills, and closed-sale or transaction data. Without them, cash flow, exit-price, and property-level hazard conclusions remain unverified.