McHenry County presents a rental-underwriting tension: Zillow’s June 2026 median home value of $371,681 and measured median asking rent of $2,028 per month produce a reported 6.55% gross yield before costs, but taxes can narrow it. Investors should investigate asset-level expenses rather than rely on headline yield. Effective property tax is 2.36%, and median annual tax is $7,274. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent; it cannot substitute for market rent or calculate yield.
At that Zillow county observation, home value rose 4.41% year over year and asking rent rose 3.92%. FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 5.85%. It is an appreciation index, not a home value; its different vintage and method provide directional comparison only, not a blended growth rate. In Realtor.com’s June 2026 MLS listing market, active listings fell 8.50% year over year while 12.61% carried price reductions. Lower visible supply alongside concessions requires offer-level review: listing prices are asks, not closed sales, and do not alone prove buyer demand.
Demand and buyer-competition evidence is mixed. QCEW’s 2025 annual county-workplace series shows covered employment and average weekly wage increased; trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector. Tax-return migration was nearly balanced, with net inflow of 83 households, but average inbound-mover income was $3,673 below outbound movers. This does not establish tenant depth. The record places investor purchases at 5.04% of 4,286 total purchases: participation exists, but it is not proof of rent demand or all-cash competition.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual expected building-value loss is 0.13%; this is neither a dollar loss nor a parcel-level flood assessment. The thesis could fail if unreported insurance, maintenance, vacancy, capital costs, and taxes erase gross yield; if flood exposure or coverage differs by property; or if migration does not support leasing. Missing flood-zone and claims records, insurance quotes and deductibles, property condition, operating expenses, lease/vacancy history, financing terms, and submarket sales prevent net-yield, cash-flow, and individual-asset conclusions.