Ontario County presents an underwriting tension: the Zillow county median home value was $331,312 in 2026-06, up 6.38%, yet an investor must test whether rent survives tax and flood carrying costs. It merits investigation for operators who underwrite a property and caution for buyers relying on price momentum. FHFA's 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 7.26%, confirming the direction but not supplying a home value. The observations use different methods and labeled periods, so their growth rates cannot be averaged.
Zillow’s $1,839 monthly figure is median market asking rent, and the supplied 6.66% gross yield is based on annual market rent before expenses. The $4,565 median annual property tax and 2.05% effective rate make that yield a screening measure, not net cash flow; neither median should be treated as the tax bill on the Zillow-value home. HUD’s $1,573 FMR is a payment standard, not market rent, and cannot substitute for the asking rent or create another yield.
Realtor.com’s MLS market shows 221 active listings, 32.04% more than a year earlier, while 8.57% have price reductions. Those are visible asking-market supply and seller-concession evidence, not closed sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was negative by 108 households, although inbound movers had average income $9,021 above outbound movers; this identifies an income mix, not housing demand. Investor participation was 64 of 1,002 purchases, or 6.39%, a bounded non-owner buyer presence rather than a measure of cash buyers. QCEW also shows covered workplace employment edged down while its average weekly wage rose; it does not describe resident employment or unemployment.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.09%; it is not a property-specific damage estimate, an insurance quote, or a dollar loss. The record does not publish closed-sale comparables, unit-level vacancy, achieved rents, operating expenses, insurance costs, property flood exposure, or financing terms. Those gaps prevent a net-yield conclusion, a sale-price underwriting conclusion, and an assessment of insurability for any address. Verify those items plus local assessment treatment before treating county results as property economics.