Perry County presents a split underwriting case. Zillow's county median home value is $168,494, up 12.09% in source period 2026-06; FHFA's repeat-transaction HPI records 40.13% cumulative appreciation over five years in source period 2025. These are different vintages and measures, so do not average them. A rental buyer should investigate, not assume, the appreciation thesis: market rent, flood exposure, and resale evidence remain unverified, and county evidence need not represent Hattiesburg.
Market rent is the gating gap: it is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD's two-bedroom FMR is $1,047 monthly, but it is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for market rent. Property tax is a 0.62% effective rate with $763 median annual tax; this is only a carrying-cost indicator. Realtor.com listing prices fell 5.58%, an asking-price signal rather than a closed-sale measure. The price picture is therefore mixed, with no support for net cash flow.
QCEW shows 2,220 annual average covered jobs in the county, up 5.82%; this is workplace employment, not resident employment or unemployment. Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return flows show net migration of -4, while average mover AGI is $5,111 lower inbound than outbound; neither establishes tenant demand. MLS evidence is thin: 8 active listings, 47 median days on market, and 29.17% price-reduced. Those are visible supply, marketing time, and concessions—not closed demand. Investors were 7 of 93 purchase mortgages, or 7.53%, indicating limited observed competition without proving an advantage.
Inland flood is the dominant unresolved risk. The modeled annual climate loss ratio is 0.20% of building value, not an insurance quote or property-specific loss history. Obtain actual asking and achieved rents, vacancy, operating costs, closed-sale or appraisal evidence, parcel flood and elevation data, insurance terms, and the target tax assessment. The record is incomplete and does not identify the missing evidence group. Until these checks are done, gross or net yield, flood-adjusted carrying cost, and asset-level resale value cannot be underwritten.