Pulaski County’s decision tension is a rising Zillow value measure against a softer visible MLS asking market and contracting covered employment. In the Zillow observation labeled 2026-06, the county median home value was $230,075, up 4.78% year over year; Realtor.com’s median MLS listing price was down 7.28%, and both observations carry the 2026-06 label. Those are different measures—value estimate versus asking-price evidence—not a sale-price contradiction. Buyers reliant on exit liquidity should investigate list-to-close results and submarket inventory; cash-flow underwriters should be cautious until rents are verified.
No measured market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot fill that gap. Carrying-cost review starts with the 0.63% effective property-tax rate and $1,202 median annual tax, then parcel assessment and insurance. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 7.03% annually. It is a different appreciation measure from Zillow; its annual vintage and transaction method cannot be averaged with Zillow’s change.
Demand evidence is mixed and remains county-level. QCEW’s annual workplace count shows 13,754 covered jobs, down 7.81%; this is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector, concentrating exposure that should be tested by employer and tenant mix. Net migration was positive but only 25 tax-return households; incoming movers’ average income exceeded outgoing movers’ by $1,456. Investors represented 5.71% of 368 purchases, a limited but identifiable competing buyer segment rather than all demand.
Risk limits are material: inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual climate loss is 0.13% of building value; this model should direct parcel flood, elevation, insurance and deductible checks, not establish a property loss. Evidence does not publish market rent, closed-sale prices, rent growth, insurance quotes, property condition, financing terms, or neighborhood vacancy. Those gaps prevent gross-yield calculation, exit-price validation, and a parcel-level all-in carrying-cost conclusion.