San Diego County presents an income-versus-entry-cost tension. Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $940,986; it fell 0.57% year over year, while the measured asking-rent series was rising. The reported gross yield is thin before costs, so buyers should test parcel-level costs and submarket leasing rather than underwrite from a county average. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 0.66% in annual 2025 data. The different methods and labelled periods point in opposite directions; they cannot be combined into one appreciation rate.
At the Zillow observation, median asking rent was $2,991 monthly, up 1.79%, and the supplied gross yield was 3.81% before costs. Effective property tax was 0.68%; this carrying cost is material against the reported yield. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not a market-rent estimate, and cannot be used to derive yield. Missing operating-expense, insurance, financing, vacancy and repair evidence prevents a cash-flow judgment.
Demand and buyer competition are mixed. Tax-return movers produced a net loss of 5,524 households, although arrivals had higher average income than departures; this does not establish tenure, neighborhood choice or lease demand. Investor purchases numbered 2,313, a 10.53% share of purchases, requiring bid-set review without establishing who ultimately rents. QCEW’s annual 2025 workplace data show covered employment slightly lower and the covered-worker average weekly wage higher; Education and health services was the largest disclosed private supersector. These are county workplace jobs, not resident employment, unemployment or a demand forecast.
Risk limits require further diligence. Modeled expected annual climate loss equals 0.24% of building value, and the dominant hazard is inland flood; county modeling cannot establish a parcel’s elevation, drainage, insurance terms or deductible. Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence shows its median listing asking price down 6.63% year over year and marketing time longer. It is listing-market evidence, not a closed-sale price or proof of buyer demand. Missing parcel flood, insurance-quote and closed-sale evidence prevents hazard-cost and exit-price conclusions.