The underwriting tension is appreciation in one measure against softer MLS asking evidence. FHFA’s 2025 annual record shows HPI up 6.31% year over year and 60.94% over its supplied five-year interval; these are index changes, not values. Realtor.com’s separate 2026-06 snapshot shows median listing prices down 8.75% and active listings up 22.19%. The mismatch merits closed-sale and parcel-level investigation; cautious buyers should not average the vintages or treat either as a closed-sale trend.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,969 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent. ACS reports $1,525 median gross rent for occupied units and $353,100 median value for owner-occupied homes, but these medians describe different populations and neither is current asking evidence; do not combine them into yield. The 1.91% effective property-tax rate and $6,759 median annual tax are direct carrying-cost checks. Property-level expenses, insurance, utilities, repairs, and lease terms are missing.
Demand evidence is mixed, not a clean growth case. Tax-return households produced net migration of -1,172, while the supplied AGI gap is -$8,829, with outbound movers higher than inbound; that is a composition concern, not proof of future demand. QCEW’s annual covered workplace employment fell 1.19% while average weekly wage rose 5.92%; Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Investor mortgages were 9.58% of 4,980 purchases, showing participation but not dominance. Realtor.com listing and pending measures are visible-market signals, not proof of completed demand.
Risk review should start with inland flood, the dominant hazard. The modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.15% of building value expected lost per year, but it is not a dollar loss and cannot replace parcel flood maps, elevation, drainage, insurance quotes, deductibles, or lender requirements. The record lacks market rent, closed-sale comps, property condition, and submarket vacancy, preventing defensible rent, expense, or exit-price underwriting. Next checks: unit-level rent or comparable leases, recent closed transactions, tax and insurance bills, flood-zone documentation, and property-level fit; county evidence is not proof of metro or property representativeness.