Sullivan County presents a tension between a modest recent Zillow move and much stronger FHFA index movement. Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $166,844 and rose year over year, whereas FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 17.34%. The HPI is not a home value; its method and vintage differ from Zillow’s, so the observations cannot be blended into one appreciation rate. Cash-flow buyers should investigate current closed comparables before setting entry value.
Income underwriting is the central gap. County market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD Fair Market Rent of $1,028 per month is a payment standard, not asking-rent evidence, and cannot replace it. The 0.61% effective property-tax rate is a carrying cost relative to price, but assessment, insurance, maintenance, financing and lease terms are not published. Without rent and those expenses, price cannot be tested against income.
Listing and demand evidence needs selective use. Realtor.com’s MLS market has 55 active listings, 21.11% more year over year, and 20.87% are price reduced. These are visible supply and seller-concession measures, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Investor mortgages were 6.29% of 175 purchases, indicating participation but not a dominant purchase channel. Tax-return migration was net 2 households; inbound movers’ average income was a calculated $1,135 above outbound movers’. QCEW covered workplace employment declined 1.56% while average weekly wages rose 5.62%; this is neither resident employment, unemployment nor a forecast. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector by employment, not the whole economy.
Risk screening remains parcel-specific. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss is 0.12% of building value; that ratio is neither an insurance quote nor a dollar loss. Check flood zone, elevation, prior loss, coverage cost, lease comparables, closed sales, assessments and vacancy. Missing market rent prevents a gross-yield calculation; missing operating expenses, parcel hazard detail and transaction detail prevent cash-flow and hazard-adjusted valuation conclusions.