Tazewell County presents a verification case, not a clean appreciation case: Zillow’s county median home value was $142,978 in 2026-06, up 0.32%, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI increased 6.88% in 2025. Buyers whose case depends on price momentum should investigate this divergence. Zillow is a modeled value measure; FHFA is an index rather than a home value. Their differing methods and labeled periods cannot be combined into a single appreciation rate or treated as a sale-price conclusion.
Housing economics remain untestable at the property-income level. Market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The $914 HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not measured market rent, and must not be used to infer rent or yield. The effective property-tax rate is 0.62%, with median annual tax of $728; underwriters need parcel assessments and tax bills, plus actual rent comps, before deciding whether income covers carrying costs.
Realtor.com supplies MLS listing-market—not closed-sale—evidence: 102 active listings were visible in 2026-06, median asking price rose 8.99%, and 20.84% of listings had a price reduction. This mixes higher asks with explicit seller concessions; it does not prove buyer demand. Investor-share data show 9.05% across 232 purchases, a limited measure of non-owner competition rather than all cash or investor activity. Migration was a net outflow of 21 tax-return households, and movers-in had average AGI $1,017 below movers-out. Separately, QCEW workplace records show annual covered employment declined while covered-worker wages rose; Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the entire economy.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss is 0.17%; that county-level ratio is not a parcel loss estimate. The central risk limit is missing evidence: no market rent prevents yield testing; no closed-sale comps prevent reconciliation of values and asking prices; and no parcel flood zone, insurance quote, condition, financing terms, or operating expenses permit a property-level cash-flow conclusion. Next checks are rent comps, tax bill and assessment, sale comps, flood and insurance documentation, and inspection.