Union County presents a yield-versus-resilience tension: measured market rent produces a stated gross yield, and price measures are positive, but job and mover evidence temper a simple growth reading. Income-focused buyers should investigate carrying costs and flood exposure; buyers underwriting sustained local demand should be cautious. Zillow’s county median home value was $299,114 in 2026-06, up 7.23% year over year. Separately, FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 11.46% annually and 42.92% cumulatively over five years. The index confirms positive appreciation direction, not a dollar value; its distinct timing and method cannot be blended with Zillow’s change.
Measured market economics are clearer than operating economics. Median asking rent is $1,449 per month, and the supplied gross yield is 5.81% before costs. That yield uses market rent and is not net cash flow. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,001, but it is a payment standard rather than an estimate of asking rent and should not be substituted into a yield calculation. The effective property-tax rate is 1.14%, with median annual tax of $2,744; both are carrying-cost signals, not a property-specific tax bill.
Demand and buyer competition are mixed at the county level. QCEW annual covered employment at county workplaces declined 1.24%; this is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Education and health services, the largest disclosed private supersector, represented 36.29% of private covered employment, indicating concentration within disclosed employment rather than the whole economy. Tax-return migration showed a net outflow of 123 households, and entrants had lower average AGI than leavers. Non-occupant investors accounted for 12.55% of recorded purchases, a meaningful buyer presence but not proof of renter absorption or neighborhood-level competition.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, while modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.18%. That is a modeled county-level loss ratio, not an observed loss or a property insurance quote. Realtor.com listing price, active inventory, days on market, price-reduction share, and pending ratio are not published in the record; without those MLS asking-price and visible-supply measures, marketing conditions cannot be assessed. Vacancy, unit-level rents, operating expenses, insurance premiums, sale comparables, property condition, and parcel flood characteristics are also not published, preventing an NOI, exit-price, or property-level flood conclusion.