Lewisburg, PA

Lewisburg, PA, is best treated as an evidence-mixed rental decision frame rather than a market call. The area has a population of 42,456, but the relevant measures arrive from different systems and periods, so they should not be collapsed into a single signal. Zillow does not publish enough rent history here to calculate a trailing-12-month rent change. Accordingly, that change is unavailable, and this report assigns neither a score nor a rank; it is intentionally unranked. The useful question is narrower: which apparent strengths in current asking rent, home-value movement, or stated gross yield remain meaningful after affordability, labor, supply, migration, financing, and hazard evidence are placed beside them?

On 2026-06-30, Zillow's asking-rent and home-value indexes show rent of $1,449 and home value of $299,106. The supplied home-value year-over-year change is 7.24%, while the supplied gross yield is 5.81%. Together, these figures establish a current asking-rent level, a home-value movement, and a gross rent-to-value relationship. They do not establish executed lease terms, operating income, expense levels, or an investor's net return. Most importantly, the 7.24% home-value change is not a substitute for rent growth. Because the Zillow trailing-12-month rent change is unavailable, the evidence cannot establish whether the $1,449 asking-rent level is rising, falling, or unchanged over that missing interval.

Census ACS reports median household income of $76,404, with supplied rent-to-income of 22.76% and price-to-income of 3.91. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,001. Zillow's $1,449 asking-rent measure is 1.448 times that HUD benchmark, a difference of $448 or 44.8%. This comparison is useful as an affordability boundary, but it is not a single household-burden finding: Census ACS measures household income, HUD specifies a two-bedroom Fair Market Rent, and Zillow reports an asking-rent index. The measures have different purposes and unit definitions. The tension is therefore not that one source disproves another, but that a marketwide asking-rent level should not be treated as equivalent to a two-bedroom program benchmark or to the experience of every household.

Labor and supply evidence add a separate, unsettled layer. BLS LAUS shows employment down 0.57% over the 12 months through 2026-05. The Census Building Permits Survey records 52 total permits through 2026 M06, or 1.22 permits per 1,000 residents, with zero permits in structures of five or more units. Redfin's 2026-05-01 for-sale data show 4.5 months of supply, up from 3.7 months, while median days on market fell to 65 from 76. The sale-to-list ratio was 97.54%, and the price-drop share was 13.22%, down from 19.81%. Higher listed sale supply compared with the prior reading sits beside shorter market time and fewer reductions. Those movements should not be forced into one directional conclusion, and neither Redfin's for-sale measures nor permits are direct evidence of completed rental availability.

IRS county-to-county tax-return migration, aggregated to the market, reports 883 movers in and 1,006 movers out, for net migration of negative 123. Average adjusted gross income for movers in was $59,478, compared with $75,830 for movers out, producing a supplied gap of negative $16,352. That is an income difference within the IRS migration measure, not a direct measure of the budgets of all residents or renters. HMDA's 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence reports 263 purchases, including 33 investor purchases, for an investor share of 12.55%. Negative net migration and measurable investor participation can coexist without resolving one another. IRS tracks migration in its defined tax-return dataset, while HMDA describes purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence; neither source alone establishes broad housing demand, investor-owned stock, or the share of cash transactions.

FEMA's National Risk Index expected annual loss evidence identifies inland flood as the top hazard, classified as water. The supplied FEMA National Risk Index score is 55.2, and the climate loss ratio is 0.001807. Neither figure identifies the exposure, condition, insurance requirement, or cost of any specific property, so it cannot be converted into a property-level rent or valuation adjustment. Available market-level cost evidence is limited to Zillow's asking rent and home value and HUD's Fair Market Rent benchmark. The packet does not provide insurance premiums, flood-coverage costs, property taxes, maintenance expenses, repair costs, or financing costs. That absence matters because the stated 5.81% gross yield cannot be interpreted as a net yield, particularly when FEMA evidence flags a water-related hazard that warrants separate cost review.

A practical next-pass review should reconcile the measures before treating Lewisburg as a rental decision. First, establish the Zillow index geography and unit mix, then compare like-for-like asking-rent information with HUD's two-bedroom benchmark rather than treating the 1.448 ratio as one complete affordability result. Second, separate Census Building Permits counts from completed and rentable units, and keep Redfin's for-sale inventory distinct from rental availability. Third, test whether the BLS employment measure, IRS migration and adjusted-gross-income gap, and HMDA investor share cover the same geography and relevant time frame. Finally, use FEMA's inland-flood evidence to prompt direct review of flood and operating-cost information before interpreting gross yield. The packet supports a structured set of questions, not a market direction, score, or rank.