Duncan, OK

Duncan, Oklahoma should be read as an evidence-rich but deliberately unranked market snapshot rather than a directional call. Zillow's trailing-12-month asking-rent change is unavailable because Zillow does not publish enough rent history here to calculate it. Consequently, this report assigns neither a score nor a rank. The available record instead combines Zillow asking-rent and home-value indexes, Census ACS income, HUD Fair Market Rent, BLS labor change, Census Building Permits, Redfin resale conditions, FEMA risk, IRS migration, and HMDA occupancy evidence. Those measures describe different concepts and dates. The decision frame is therefore to test how rent and value levels, affordability benchmarks, labor movement, supply signals, mover flows, investor participation, and hazard evidence coexist, without treating any one measure as a forecast.

At 2026-06-30, Zillow records an asking-rent level of $1,047 and a home-value level of $146,060. The home-value measure is 1.89% higher year over year, and the reported gross-yield figure is 8.6%. Those figures place the stated rent and value levels in the same snapshot, but they do not establish a rent-growth trend: the required trailing-12-month Zillow rent change is unavailable. A price movement cannot fill that missing rent-series observation. The 8.6% figure is gross, so the available evidence does not convert it into an operating result or account for costs not supplied. The central tension is a positive value change beside an unmeasurable rent change, rather than evidence that rents and values have moved together.

Census ACS lists median household income at $61,620, while the market measures show a Zillow rent-to-income ratio of 20.39% and a price-to-income ratio of 2.37. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $937. Zillow's $1,047 asking-rent level is $110 above that HUD benchmark, or 1.118 times it. This is an affordability boundary, not a household budget result. Census ACS income is a marketwide median-income reference; HUD Fair Market Rent is a program benchmark; and Zillow is an asking-rent index. None identifies the rent, fees, utilities, household size, or income of a particular leaseholder. The comparison shows that the observed asking-rent level sits above the supplied two-bedroom benchmark, while the ratio measures should not be read as direct tenant burden.

BLS's LAUS metro labor measure shows a 2.87% year-over-year decline for the 12 months through 2026-05. On the construction side, the Census Building Permits Survey records 20 total permitted homes in 2026 year to date through M06, zero in buildings with five or more units, and 0.46 permits per 1,000 residents. Redfin's 2026-05-01 sales snapshot reports 6.8 months of supply, up from 5.2; median days on market of 85, up from 58; a sale-to-list ratio of 0.985; and price drops on 25.93% of listings, versus 23.7% previously. The computed changes are 1.6 months of supply, 27 days of market time, and 2.23 percentage points of price-drop incidence. These are concurrent but distinct indicators: they document a labor decline, a permit record with no five-or-more-unit activity, and a resale snapshot with more supply, longer market time, and more listed price reductions. They do not show which listed homes are rental candidates, what kind of units the permits represent beyond the stated category, or whether any measure caused another.

IRS county-to-county tax-return migration, aggregated to the Duncan market, reports 966 moved in and 870 moved out, for net migration of 96. The in-mover AGI figure is $47,167, compared with $44,584 for out-movers, a stated $2,583 gap. These are flow and AGI observations, not evidence of a particular mover's housing tenure or housing payment. HMDA's 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence records 475 purchases, including 91 investor purchases, for a 19.16% investor share. IRS and HMDA answer different questions: IRS captures tax-return migration aggregation, whereas HMDA identifies occupancy coding within observed purchase mortgages. A positive net-migration count and the investor-coded mortgage share can coexist without revealing cash purchases, lease absorption, vacancy, or whether movers became renters, owner occupants, or investor purchasers.

FEMA's National Risk Index supplies a climate-loss ratio of 0.001507 and a risk score of 65.9; its listed top hazard is inland flood, classified as water. This is market-level expected annual loss evidence, not an assertion about a particular parcel, building, insurance policy, or repair bill. Available cost-level references are Zillow's $1,047 asking-rent level and $146,060 home-value level, plus HUD's $937 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent benchmark. No insurance premium, deductible, tax, maintenance, utility, or flood-mitigation cost is provided. FEMA's risk readings can therefore be placed beside these market-level price and rent references, but they cannot translate the loss ratio into a renter's or owner's all-in housing cost. That missing cost evidence matters because the reported gross yield is not a net-cash-flow measure.

Practical due diligence starts by aligning measures before drawing a conclusion. For a renter, the missing evidence is a current unit-level quote with all recurring charges, any concession terms, and a usable Zillow rent history; this would distinguish the asking-rent index from an actual lease obligation. For a landlord or small investor, the unresolved record includes achieved rents, turnover, vacancy, operating expenses, insurance and flood-related costs, financing terms, and the occupancy mix not captured by HMDA cash transactions. The supply question requires the location and unit type of the Census Building Permits record, along with the listing composition underlying Redfin's months supply, days on market, and price drops. The demand question requires whether IRS movers remained in the market and their tenure choice. Preserve the stated source periods, with Zillow through 2026-06-30, BLS through 2026-05, permits through M06, Redfin at 2026-05-01, and HMDA in 2024, rather than merging them into a single current condition. This evidence supports targeted verification, not a score, rank, forecast, property-level conclusion, or investment verdict.