Hilo, HI
Investigate Hilo only if the strategy can absorb high entry costs and inland-flood exposure while testing whether current rents are durable.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Investigate Hilo only if the strategy can absorb high entry costs and inland-flood exposure while testing whether current rents are durable. Rent-focused buyers have a reason to look: median asking rent is $2,828, up 16.64%, and implied gross yield is 5.89%. Buyers who need easy resale, broad tenant affordability, or low physical risk should avoid it.
The opportunity is stronger on income than on appreciation. The median home value is $576,258 and rose 0.5%, while jobs grew 0.6%. Positive net migration of 411 households adds a supportive demand signal, but it is modest rather than decisive.
The risks span affordability, exit conditions, and physical exposure: rent absorbs 43.15% of median household income, listings carry 6.2 months of supply, and the dominant hazard is inland flood. Strong asking-rent growth therefore sits beside tenant affordability pressure, slower resale conditions, and water-related loss exposure.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
Is net household migration positive?
What evidence is there of buyer negotiating room?
How prevalent are non-occupant purchases?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Hilo as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 69 | 30% | 20.70 |
| Rent trend | 98 | 25% | 24.50 |
| Affordability | 1 | 15% | 0.15 |
| Supply pressure | 6 | 15% | 0.90 |
| Climate risk | 1 | 15% | 0.15 |
| Published score | 46 | ||
LAUS employment rose 0.6% year over year -> the job signal is positive but modest.
Median asking rent rose 16.64% to $2,828 and gross yield is 5.89% -> rental income is the clearest opportunity, subject to verifying achieved rents.
Rent equals 43.15% of median household income and price-to-income is 7.33 -> local-income affordability is a major constraint for tenants and buyers.
Supply is 6.2 months, median market time is 101 days, and price drops are 24.64% -> buyers have negotiating evidence, but resale liquidity is a risk.
The annual climate loss ratio is 0.8954%, with inland flood dominant -> water-related property loss is a central underwriting risk.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- High rent burden leaves the rental thesis exposed to weaker achieved rents.
- For-sale inventory, long marketing time, and price drops point to difficult resale execution.
- Inland-flood exposure creates property-loss risk that can offset rental returns.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Hilo
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilo, HI (Target) | 46 | $576k | $2,828 | 5.9% | ▲ 0.6% |
| Crestview, FL | 35 | $442k | $1,987 | 5.4% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Norwich, CT | 64 | $436k | $1,978 | 5.4% | ▲ 0.8% |
| Kingston, NY | 63 | $451k | $2,069 | 5.5% | ▲ 1.3% |
| Medford, OR | 40 | $442k | $1,841 | 5.0% | ▲ 0.1% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |